{"id":11364,"date":"2023-06-16T18:58:44","date_gmt":"2023-06-16T18:58:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/2023\/06\/dt\/"},"modified":"2024-11-20T21:12:32","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T18:12:32","slug":"the-ongoing-greek-electoral-cycle-dimitrios-triantaphyllou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/2023\/06\/the-ongoing-greek-electoral-cycle-dimitrios-triantaphyllou\/","title":{"rendered":"The Ongoing Greek Electoral Cycle – Dimitrios Triantaphyllou"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The Greek parliamentary elections of the 21st<\/sup> of May were\nthe first half of a match that is expected to end on the 25th<\/sup> of\nJune when a second election is scheduled to be held. The result of the May\nelections and the call for new ones are indeed flabbergasting and confusing for\nanyone that follows Greek politics from a distance. While the ruling New\nDemocracy Party won the election with a surprising 20-point advantage over\nSYRIZA, the main opposition party, it could not win an outright majority in\nParliament and the Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis called for a second\ngeneral election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was a scenario long in the making as the SYRIZA-led government\nled by Alexis Tsipras (September 2015-July 2019) voted an electoral law in 2016\nbased on a party-list proportional representation system, under which a\nsingle-party parliamentary majority could only be achieved with a vote share of\nat least 45%, thus leading to coalition governments. By supporting this law,\nSYRIZA abolished the reinforced proportional system which had been in effect\nsince 2004. The law could not be applied in the next election, as it failed to\nbe voted in by a two thirds majority. The New Democracy government that came to\npower in July 2019 under the old law, changed the electoral law again to a\nreinforced proportional system which would only come into effect in subsequent\nelections. Thus, the May 2023 legislative elections were held under the\nSYRIZA-favored electoral law which led to New Democracy\u2019s victory with a 40,79%\nshare of the vote and 146 seats in Parliament, short of the 151 seats need to\nhold a single party majority. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

SYRIZA received a 20.07% share of the vote, down 11.46% from the\n2019 elections while PASOK, the third placed party received 11.46% of the vote.\nWhile the extent of New Democracy\u2019s victory was unexpected, its first-place\nfinish was anticipated as it had led in all public opinion polls during the\ncourse of its four-year mandate. Also foreseen was the need for a second\nelection as SYRIZA had been unable to convince either New Democracy or other\npossible partners for the need of a coalition government after the elections.\nIn fact, voters seemed in part to punish SYRIZA as it viewed SYRIZA\u2019s electoral\ngimmicks as related more to its attempts to come back to power rather than\nadvancing the cause of the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, the May 2023 elections can be considered to be the most\nconsequential elections of the last fifteen years as they seem to indicate a\nreturn to growth and stability since the start of the 2008 economic crisis and\nthe subsequent implementation of austerity measures. How the Mitsotakis\ngovernment handled the Covid-19 crisis, the impact of the war in Ukraine and\nits effect on rising energy costs and inflation in general, and growing\ntensions with Turkey both at the land border in Spring 2020 and in the Eastern\nMediterranean in late Summer\/Fall later that year should also be factored in to\nexplain the election results.  Voters\nrewarded it for prioritizing growth, making appropriate use of European funds\nto subsidize some of the rising costs of living to consumers, raising the\nminimum wage and pensions, increasing the inflow of foreign investments to the\ncountry, and creating a sense of stability and optimism for the future. The\nnext big mantra is the granting of investment grade status to the Greek economy\nby major credit agencies and readjusting public sector salaries. In other words,\nthe perceived return to \u201cnormalcy\u201d coupled with the perception that Kyriakos\nMitsotakis and his government have a plan for the future explain to a great\nextent the vote of confidence he received in the May election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that Greece\u2019s deadliest train disaster in its history on 28\nFebruary this year did not essentially dent New Democracy\u2019s popularity. This\nwas an indication of the priorities of Greek voters. In fact, given the choice\nof which party to support to reform the clientelist public sector which\nreceived a large part of the blame for the train crash. Thus, the Mitsotakis\ngovernment was deemed as the lesser evil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Undoubtedly, national security also played a big role in the\nattitudes of the voters with the government\u2019s handling of the repeated crises\nwith Turkey, the slowdown in the inflow of illegal immigration both overland\n(with the construction of a wall along a large section of the Greek-Turkish\nborder) and at sea with increased border patrols and the input of FRONTEX. Also\nrelevant were the upgrading of Greece\u2019s relations with the United States, the\ntargeted policy of investing in the county\u2019s armed forces after a decade of\nminimal spending due to austerity measures in place, the improvement of the\ncountry\u2019s civil protection mechanism (in tandem with the EU\u2019s civil protection\ninitiatives) to deal with natural disasters associated with the global climate\ncrisis, among others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The enhanced threat perception emanating from Turkey tends to keep\nboth citizens and governments on edge, and this has paradoxically contributed\nto the attempts to focus on the effective governance and management of state\ninstitutions. It is interesting to note that the coincidence of Greece\u2019s\nelectoral cycle with Turkey\u2019s has contributed to the choices of voters as well\nas to the composition of the current appointed interim government that handles\nthe fate of the country until the 25 June elections. Apart from appointing one\nof Greece\u2019s most senior and experienced diplomats to head the Foreign Ministry,\nfour ministers \u2013 the Minister of National Defense, the Minister of Citizen\nProtection, the Minister of Shipping and Island Policy, and the Minister of\nClimate Change and Civil Protection — are former high ranking and respected\nmilitary men. The intention is clearly one of having experienced technocrats\nwith the authority at the helm of some of the most crucial ministries to handle\nnational security emergencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Turkey finally concluded its elections with the reelection of\nRecep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan as the country\u2019s President on 28 May and the appointment\nof a new cabinet a few days later, there is certain wariness in Athens\nregarding the new government in Ankara and its intentions. Albeit the fact that\nthe former Defense Minister, Hulusi Akar announced in early April that he\nexpects a \u2018moratorium\u2019 with Greece in military and air force exercises in the\nAegean Sea to hold between 15 June and 15 September. Over the last few days,\ntwo incidents, inter alia, have raised alarm bells. The first has to do with\nthe collision of two cargo ships with Singapore and Vanuatu flags respectively\nbut both with a majority of Turkish crew members, off the island of Chios where\nthe Greek authorities immediately launched a search and rescue operation since\nthe area where the collision occurred is under its jurisdiction. The\nnon-acceptance of the Greek efforts by the Turkish captains of both ships led\nto a standstill for a while until the issue was resolved. The second is the\nongoing marked increased pressure by illegal immigrants trying to cross the\nborder at different points into Greece as part of a seemingly organized\ncampaign on behalf of the Turkish authorities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence, relations with Turkey will be high on the agenda of many of the political parties. As Greece approaches the 25 June elections, in particular the New Democracy party which projects itself as the most able to ensure the country\u2019s continued stability. The naming of the new revamped Turkish cabinet has heightened the anxiety in Athens as the new cabinet from the government formed after the Greek elections will have to establish a new working relationship with the Turkish side as well as gauge whether the post-electoral period in both countries justifies the assessment\u00a0 by many in Athens that the conditions for a new round of dialogue and trust-building between the two countries are ripe.

Hence, both citizens and political elites look forward to an end of the electoral cycle and its almost certain result that Kyriakos Mitsotakis will lead a New Democracy government into a phase of continued stability and growth. It remains to be seen whether a combination of voter fatigue and the very possible entry of several smaller parties into parliament (given the low 3% threshold) will put a damper into the next government\u2019s stability and ability to pursue its agenda at a time of continued regional and international flux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[A further assessment of the post-25 June election context and what\nit implies for Greece\u2019s relations with Turkey will follow in early July]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Dimitrios Triantaphyllou <\/strong>is Professor of International Politics at the Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences, Athens and Professor of International Relations at Kadir Has University, Istanbul. He holds a BA in Political Science and History from the University of California, Berkeley and an MA and PhD in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. He has previously served in various capacities in several research and academic institutions such as the Center for International and European Studies (CIES), Istanbul; the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), Athens; the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), Paris; the Hellenic Observatory at the London School of Economics; the University of the Aegean, Rhodes; and the International Center for Black Sea Studies (ICBSS). Athens. He also served as an advisor at the Hellenic Ministry for Foreign Affairs. He is an editor of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies<\/em> (SSCI indexed) and a member of the Greek-Turkish Forum. His more recent applied and research interests include Turkish Foreign Policy; Black Sea Security and Politics; EU foreign and neighbourhood policies; Greek-Turkish relations; and Politics in the Eastern Mediterranean. He is also actively engaged in several non-formal education initiatives promoting civic engagement and youth empowerment <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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To cite this work:<\/strong> Dimitrios Triantaphyllou, “The Ongoing Greek Electoral Cycle”, Panorama<\/em>, Online, 16 June 2023, https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/blog\/2023\/06\/16\/dt\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Copyright@UIKPanorama.<\/em> All on-line and print rights reserved. Opinions expressed in works published by the Panorama<\/em> belongs to the authors alone unless otherwise stated, and do not imply endorsement by the IRCT, Global Academy, or the Editors\/Editorial Board of Panorama. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Greek parliamentary elections of the 21st of May were the first half of a match that is expected to end on the 25th of June when a second election is scheduled to be held. The result of the May elections and the call for new ones are indeed flabbergasting and confusing for anyone that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":10125,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[512,504,486],"tags":[560,656,636],"class_list":["post-11364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crisis-in-ukraine","category-europe","category-opinion","tag-election","tag-english","tag-greece"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11364"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11364\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10125"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}