{"id":11367,"date":"2023-06-10T13:21:55","date_gmt":"2023-06-10T13:21:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/2023\/06\/oo-2\/"},"modified":"2024-11-20T21:13:22","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T18:13:22","slug":"how-to-analyze-the-complexity-of-turkish-foreign-policy-making-ozgur-ozdamar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/2023\/06\/how-to-analyze-the-complexity-of-turkish-foreign-policy-making-ozgur-ozdamar\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Analyze the Complexity of Turkish Foreign Policy-Making? – \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zdamar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Scholars studying Turkey\u2019s foreign affairs have traditionally taken historical and case-study approaches to analyze Turkish foreign policy (TFP). These studies have usually taken actor-general approaches in which Turkey is treated as a unitary actor with a single choice of foreign policy course representing \u2018the national interest\u2019. These studies have usually taken the form of policy-oriented work with an atheoretical approach. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some\nother traditional studies have used International Relations (IR) theories in a\nnon-hypothesis-testing manner to account for Turkey\u2019s foreign policy. These\nstudies, mostly claiming to use a \u2018political realist\u2019 framework, used\ntheoretical approaches in a rather \u2018loose\u2019 manner, only employing them as a \u2018framework\nfor analysis\u2019 rather than empirically testing specific hypotheses. These\nstudies also focused only on the systemic level of analysis of Turkey\u2019s\nbilateral relations. Studies on Turkey\u2019s foreign policy during the Cold War,\nits decision to join NATO vis-a-vis Soviet threats, Turkey\u2019s relations with the\nEU, or its bilateral relations with Greece are primary examples of this type of\nresearch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These\nstudies dominated the literature on Turkey\u2019s foreign policy, especially during\nthe Cold War. However, with the end of the Cold War, we also observed other\nactors becoming relevant in Turkish foreign policymaking, including the\nbureaucracy, civil society, and individuals, in addition to the traditional\npolitical and military elite. This was a development similar to the rest of the\nworld. The democratization and opening of the political regime in Turkey during\nthe 1990s have shaped the actual foreign policy decision-making and the studies\nattempting to explain it. In this period, we observed the first kind of studies\nestablishing linkages between domestic factors such as public opinion and\nTurkey\u2019s relations with the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Starting\nfrom the early 2000s, the studies focusing on Turkey\u2019s foreign policy had to consider\nmany other political, economic, and sociological factors due to the changing\nnature of Turkish foreign policy under successive AKP governments, such as the influence\nof trade coalitions and business interests. Especially in the post-2010 period,\nTurkish foreign policy discussions focused almost solely on domestic and\nindividual level factors such as governing elite\u2019s ideology, leader-level\nfactors, or the country\u2019s shift from a parliamentary to a presidential system\nand institutional changes accompanying it.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

My\nsuggestion for students of TFP studies to better explain the complexity of\nTurkey\u2019s foreign policy is to take a \u2018foreign policy analysis\u2019 or \u2018foreign\npolicy decision-making\u2019 approach. I believe such an approach to TFP studies is\nwarranted for many reasons. First, studies focusing on Turkey\u2019s foreign\nrelations should take into account all three traditional levels of analysis in\nIR. That is, TFP studies must consider the individual level decision-making\nfactors and state level (domestic level) political, economic, and social\nfactors beyond the system level explanations. Any study excluding the other two\nlevels of analysis is bound to be misleading. In other words, I invite students\nof Turkish foreign policy to engage in multi-factorial, multi-level analysis in\ntheir work, creatively connecting micro-level and macro-level factors. Relatedly,\nTFP studies should also shift from actor-general to actor-specific analyses. In\nour analyses, we should eliminate heuristics such as \u2018state\u2019 and recognize that\nvarious factors contribute to foreign policy decision-making within any given\nstate, including Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore,\nTFP studies should eliminate gross generalizations and abstractions in the\nforms of IR theories such as polarity, distribution of power and capabilities,\ninternational regimes, or social structures of IR but focus on what we call\nmid-range theories and aim for mid-level generalizations. Therefore, focusing\non the agency instead of the structure is paramount. In addition, Turkish\nforeign policy studies must take the course of empirical analyses. Training our\nstudents and academics toward using objectively collected data to make\ninferences about foreign policy decision making should be the preferred way to study\nTurkish foreign policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specifically,\nI invite students of TFP to focus on leader level variables such as individual\ndecision-making, leaders\u2019 beliefs and personality traits, decision-making\nmodels and constraints on human decision-making and cognition, rationality and\nboundedness of rational decision-making, psycho-biographies, and pathologies of\nleaders. In addition, focusing on small-group decision-making and the limitations\nof such a decision-making environment is essential. Especially after the 2017 constitutional\nreferendum and shift to the presidential system, individual and small-group\ndecision making dynamics have become even more critical. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At\nthe domestic level of analysis, there are countless factors, the influence of\nwhich we can study on TFP. The most relevant ones seem to be ideological and\nideational factors, especially those related to faith, religion, ethnicity, and\nnationalism. Effects of a political party system, parliamentary politics, and\nopposition appear as essential variables. Elite level conceptualizations of\nTurkey\u2019s foreign policy roles and the conflict and contestation about those\nroles constitute an important area of study. Public opinion on foreign policy\ninitiatives of governments, especially on important issues like the use of\nforce abroad, foreign aid, refugees, and MENA politics, come next. Other\nresearch areas include economic factors, trade policy and coalitions, the business\nworld, and foreign policy. Studying the role of civilian, military, and\nintelligence bureaucracy in Turkish foreign policy decision making is also a\nmajor area of study. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To\nconclude, understanding and explaining the complexities of Turkish foreign\npolicy is not an easy task and requires immense effort and training. Focusing\non all three levels of analysis (system, state, and individual) and making the\nnecessary connections between those factors objectively and empirically is\nrequired. A commitment to the agent-based study of decision-making is needed to\ncreate realistic analyses. Opening the \u2018black box of state\u2019 and daring to\naccount for multiple factors shaping foreign policy decision-making is of the greatest\nimportance. Using mid-range theories to make mid-level generalizations and\nexplanations of Turkish foreign policy in an empirical manner is the way\nforward for TFP studies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Assoc. Prof. \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zdamar, Bilkent <\/strong>University<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Assoc. Prof. \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zdamar is a faculty member and head of the Department of International Relations at Bilkent University. Dr. \u00d6zdamar’s articles have been published in journals such as the European Journal of IR, Foreign Policy Analysis, International Studies Review, Political Research Quarterly. Dr. \u00d6zdamar’s last co-authored book, “Role Theory in the Middle East and North Africa”, was published by Routledge publishing house in 2019. \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zdamar spent the 2018-2019 academic year at SAIS-Johns Hopkins as a Fulbright researcher and conducted a project on Turkey-US relations.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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To cite this work: <\/strong> \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zdamar , \u201cTHow to Analyze the Complexity of Turkish Foreign Policy-Making?\u201d, Panorama, Online, 10 June 2023, https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/blog\/2023\/06\/10\/oo-2\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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This article has been prepared with the support provided to the International Relations Council<\/a> and the Global Academy<\/a> by the Heinrich B\u00f6ll Stiftung Association Turkey Representative within the scope of the project titled ‘Foreign Policy for the 21st Century; Peaceful, Equitable, and Dynamic Turkey’.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Copyright@UIKPanorama. All on-line and print rights reserved. Opinions expressed in works published by the Panorama belongs to the authors alone unless otherwise stated, and do not imply endorsement by the IRCT, Global Academy, or the Editors\/Editorial Board of Panorama.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Scholars studying Turkey\u2019s foreign affairs have traditionally taken historical and case-study approaches to analyze Turkish foreign policy (TFP). These studies have usually taken actor-general approaches in which Turkey is treated as a unitary actor with a single choice of foreign policy course representing \u2018the national interest\u2019. These studies have usually taken the form of policy-oriented […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":143,"featured_media":9685,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510,486,508],"tags":[656,563,713,651,650],"class_list":["post-11367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-100-years-of-the-republic","category-opinion","category-turkey","tag-english","tag-foreign-policy-and-diplomacy","tag-heinrich-boll-foundation","tag-turkish-foreign-policy-making","tag-turkiye"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11367","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/143"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11367"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11367\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9685"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11367"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11367"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11367"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}