{"id":11382,"date":"2023-04-27T14:08:59","date_gmt":"2023-04-27T14:08:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/2023\/04\/to-2\/"},"modified":"2024-11-20T21:41:17","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T18:41:17","slug":"how-should-turkiye-position-itself-in-the-competition-for-alternative-international-systems-tarik-oguzlu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/2023\/04\/how-should-turkiye-position-itself-in-the-competition-for-alternative-international-systems-tarik-oguzlu\/","title":{"rendered":"How Should T\u00fcrkiye Position itself in the Competition for Alternative International Systems? – Tar\u0131k O\u011fuzlu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Within the changing dynamics of international\npolitics, the question of \u2018what should be the grand strategy for Turkey\u2019 has\nnever been more critical. Although Turkey, as a medium-sized country, can\ninfluence developments in its immediate region, it is directly affected by\ndevelopments on a global scale. In recent years, the new Cold War climate\nbrewing among the United States of America, the People’s Republic of China, and\nthe Russian Federation have begun to put extra challenges on many countries,\nincluding Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United States of America, the principal founding\nand protective country of the liberal world order that developed after 1945, are\nnot as strong as it used to be. Non-Western actors now have a much greater say\nin world governance in parallel with the increase in their power capacities. The\nPeople’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation come first among these\nactors. China began opening to the world in the late 1970s and has achieved its\ncurrent position within the system. Thus, contributing to restructuring the existing\norder in line with its priorities is in China\u2019s national interest. On the other\nhand, moving to a multipolar order in which Russia is recognized as a great\npower on par with other global heavyweights is Russia\u2019s main priority. While\nChina has already proved its rule-making capacity within the existing order, it\nis remarkable that Russia has fast turned into a global rogue state trying to\ndisrupt others\u2019 geopolitical games in a zero-sum fashion.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United States of America, feeling that the ground\nbeneath it is starting to shake in the face of these two countries, acts as if\nit is not disturbed by the emergence of a new ideological, normative, and\ngeopolitical cold war among great powers. A new cold war appears to have been\nseen by the American security establishment as vital to America\u2019s ability to\nmaintain its dominant position in international politics. The sharp\npolarization of world politics along ideological and geopolitical fault lines\nand the recognition of the United States and China as the emerging leaders of\ntwo poles in conflict with each other seem compatible with the global strategy\nof the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Cold War between 1945 and 1990, the countries\noutside the two competing blocs could not effectively shape world politics\ndespite all their desires and efforts. However, in today’s world, many\nmedium-sized countries, including Turkey, as well as underdeveloped and\ndeveloping countries, are disturbed by this new cold war climate, which is\nbecoming increasingly destructive. In this new polarized environment, which\nemerged within the framework of the separation between democracies and\nautocracies, many countries are trying to stay out of the tension. Developing\npragmatic relations with as many countries as possible is the primary desire of\nmany countries today. It is precious for many countries to pursue a\nmultidimensional and multidirectional foreign policy without taking sides.\nTurkey is one of them. No matter how deep-rooted historical, political,\neconomic, social, strategic, and institutional relations it has established\nwith the Western world, Turkey has been simultaneously trying to develop closer\nties with non-Western countries based on mutual benefits and pragmatic concerns.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trying to create an Ankara-centric strategy within the\nframework of the concept of strategic autonomy, Turkey is faced with severe\nchallenges from both Western and non-Western actors. What Turkey expects from\nits Western allies and partners is the acceptance of its strategic\nautonomy-oriented foreign policy. On the other hand, it is uncomfortable with its\nstrategic intentions being continuously questioned by its Western partners as it\ntries to distribute its eggs in different baskets and does not want to play the\ntraditional role that its Western partners expect it to do in the emerging new\nworld order. The perception that strategic decisions are taken in Western\ncapitals such as Washington and Brussels without Ankara\u2019s input, but it is nevertheless\nexpected to fulfill them in its neighborhood as the local representative of the\nWestern world disturbs Turkish elites. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to this established perception about the\nWestern world, the idea that Western countries do not take Turkey’s\ngeopolitical and security interests into account sufficiently and that they put\nTurkey’s territorial integrity and economic prosperity at risk with the\npolicies they follow resonates with Ankara. The perception that its struggle\nagainst all forms of terrorism is not sufficiently accepted in the Western\nworld and that the policies of Western countries in the Aegean, Eastern\nMediterranean, North Africa, Caucasus, and Middle East regions harm its\nnational interests seriously affect Turkey’s view of the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, the growing salience of illiberal\ndynamics in its domestic politics strengthens the perception that Turkey is\nrapidly moving away from the norms and values of the West. Turkey, which does\nnot feel pressured about democratization, human rights, and similar issues in\nits relations with Eastern actors, does not have this comfort in its relations\nwith Western countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From this background, three fundamental facts are essential\nin determining the grand strategy that Turkey should follow in the coming\nyears. First, its neighborhood’s geopolitical developments continue to affect\nTurkey’s territorial integrity and economic prosperity negatively. Secondly,\nTurkey is a trading state and derives half of its national wealth from\ninternational trade. Finally, Turkey is a medium-sized power with a national\nincome of fewer than one trillion dollars. On the one hand, this situation determines\nthe limits of what Turkey can do in the international arena. On the other hand,\nit requires it to keep itself away from the polarizations that have begun to\nemerge on a global scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, Turkey’s grand strategy must contain realistic\nand liberal tendencies and assumptions. Turkey needs to have a strong army that\nextensively relies on its national defense industry and has the capacity and\nability to conduct military operations outside its borders. It is vital to\ndefend itself against fait accompli<\/em> by its regional rivals and, if\npossible, establish its homeland defense in the future. In addition,\nprioritizing diplomatic and economic instruments in relations with its\nneighbors will facilitate Turkey’s achievement of its interests. The\nmultilateral cooperation that Turkey develops with the surrounding countries\nbased on the logic of regionalism will also effectively eliminate the negative\nconsequences of the policies pursued by non-regional global actors. Turkey’s\nluck is that most of the countries in its region are uncomfortable with the\nemerging conflict among great powers and do not want to have to take sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Being a trading state and importing the economic\nresources and technological capacity it needs to complete its development\nrequires Turkey to support liberal and Kantian dynamics in international politics.\nA world where unpredictable, hard power struggles are experienced,\nprotectionist economic policies are implemented, serious problems are encountered\nin global supply chains, energy inputs increase, and divergences between global\nactors in the technology and economy are strengthened and incompatible with\nTurkey’s national interests. Unless global powers, which differ from all other\nactors in terms of their material power capacities, are limited by international\nlaw and international organizations, world politics will evolve around the idea\nthat the strong can do what they want, and the weak are doomed to their fate.\nTherefore, Turkey should contribute to making international politics rules-based\nand predictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although it is understandable to some extent that it\npursues a policy of balance among great powers, Turkey should be more distant\nfrom global actors who try to endanger the liberal world order and the rules-based\ninternational relations structure. It should also be noted that nearly half of\nTurkey’s foreign trade and seventy percent of foreign direct investment\nentering the country originate from the West. Despite all the difficulties\nexperienced in the European Union membership process, the contribution of the\nstandards developed within the European Union to the welfare of Europe is still\napparent. It would be suitable for Turkey to materialize its national\ndevelopment within the framework of similar standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, NATO membership offers Turkey immense opportunities\nin international politics. Instead of developing bilateral relations with each\nNATO member country, especially the United States, being in continuous\nrelations with these countries within NATO’s multilateral institutional\nmechanisms provides opportunities for Turkey to articulate its security\npriorities successfully. Being under NATO’s nuclear security umbrella is also essential\nfor Turkey’s national security. NATO membership is a vital power multiplier in\nTurkey’s relations with both NATO members, such as Greece, and non-Western\nglobal actors, such as China and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the international political and economic arena, the\nWestern bloc is still dominant against other alternative power blocs. Developed\ninstitutional relations with Western actors are decisive for Turkey regarding\neconomic welfare and national security interests. In the context of the\nchanging global balance of power, it is normal and understandable that Turkey\ndesires to take part in non-Western institutional platforms such as the\nShanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and the Eurasian Economic Community\nand to develop close relations with the critical power centers of the\nnon-Western world, especially China. Yet, it\u2019s equally essential that Turkey\npays ultimate care to preserve the gains it has achieved within NATO as well as\nalongside the EU membership process.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Prof. Dr. Tarik O\u011fuzlu, Istanbul Ayd\u0131n University <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prof. Dr. Tar\u0131k O\u011fuzlu is a faculty member at Istanbul Ayd\u0131n University. O\u011fuzlu, who received his doctorate from Bilkent University in 2003, works on Turkish foreign policy, transatlantic relations, security and world order. <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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To cite this work:<\/strong> Tarik O\u011fuzlu, \u201cHow Should T\u00fcrkiye Position itself in the Competition for Alternative International Systems?\u201d, Panorama, Online, 27 April 2023, https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/blog\/2023\/04\/27\/to\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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This article has been prepared with the support provided to the International Relations Council<\/a> and the Global Academy<\/a> by the Heinrich B\u00f6ll Stiftung Association Turkey Representative within the scope of the project titled ‘Foreign Policy for the 21st Century; Peaceful, Equitable, and Dynamic Turkey’.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Copyright@UIKPanorama. All on-line and print rights reserved. Opinions expressed in works published by the Panorama belongs to the authors alone unless otherwise stated, and do not imply endorsement by the IRCT, Global Academy, or the Editors\/Editorial Board of Panorama.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Within the changing dynamics of international politics, the question of \u2018what should be the grand strategy for Turkey\u2019 has never been more critical. Although Turkey, as a medium-sized country, can influence developments in its immediate region, it is directly affected by developments on a global scale. In recent years, the new Cold War climate brewing […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":9727,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510,486,508],"tags":[656,563,713,791,650],"class_list":["post-11382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-100-years-of-the-republic","category-opinion","category-turkey","tag-english","tag-foreign-policy-and-diplomacy","tag-heinrich-boll-foundation","tag-international-order","tag-turkiye"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11382"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11382\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9727"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}