{"id":11388,"date":"2023-04-26T10:45:10","date_gmt":"2023-04-26T10:45:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/2023\/04\/yg\/"},"modified":"2024-11-20T21:42:40","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T18:42:40","slug":"one-year-of-the-full-scale-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-how-a-small-country-has-ruined-a-great-russia-myth-yevgeniya-gaber","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/2023\/04\/one-year-of-the-full-scale-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-how-a-small-country-has-ruined-a-great-russia-myth-yevgeniya-gaber\/","title":{"rendered":"One Year of the Full-Scale Russian Invasion of Ukraine: How a Small Country Has Ruined a Great Russia Myth – Yevgeniya Gaber"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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As the world has crossed the threshold of the first anniversary of the Russian war in Ukraine, experts from all over the world are examining the shifts it caused in international system, geopolitical alliances, national security strategies and regional settings. Indeed, the global implications of Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine are multifold and the processes that it has triggered will likely outlast the war itself \u2013 from energy and food security to impacts for global financial markets and supply chains. The short conclusion, however, is concise: Ukraine has outperformed morally and militarily, the West \u2013 politically, and Russia \u2013 economically. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The skills of\nUkrainian military on the battlefield and the power of civil resilience\nof Ukrainian society have become\ntextbook examples of total defence and symbols of outstanding resistance. From the\nfirst days of the war, both individuals and institutions including armed forces, president, parliament,\ngovernment, police, emergency services, local\nauthorities, health workers, firefighters, NGO\u2019s, businesses, and volunteers have been mobilized in a nation-wide struggle for independence, and\noften \u2013 simply for a physical survival.\nIt is first and foremost the motivation and morale, that helped Ukraine\nwithstand the overwhelming forces of invaders. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This, however, has not come as\na surprise. Unlike for many foreign observers, for Ukrainians the full-scale\nRussian invasion on February 24, 2022, was not a beginning but a culmination of\na centuries-long struggle for personal liberties, distinct national identity,\nand state sovereignty. The long historical record of bans on Ukrainian language\nand literature under the Russian Empire (e.g. the Ems Order<\/a> or Valuev Circular<\/a>), The Great Famine\n(Holodomor) of 1932-1933, which killed more than 10 millions of Ukrainians and\nwas officially recognized as a genocide in many countries, deportations of\nCrimean Tatars and other ethnic groups committed by the Communist regime, mass\npersecutions and executions of Ukrainian intellectuals (often known as Executed Renaissance<\/a>) that aimed at\ncoercive Russification of Ukraine under the Soviet rule, and systemic efforts\nto exterminate Ukrainians as a political nation have left few illusions about\nthe future destiny of non-Russian population of Ukraine in case of its\noccupation. Though largely unknown and often overshadowed by the Russian\n\u201cbrotherly nations\u201d narrative, these facts remain an important part of the\nUkrainian collective memory. It is these memories of the past and the post-2014\nrealities of the \u201cRusskiy mir\u201d in the occupied territories in the present, that\ndid not allow Russia to freeze Ukrainians into submission in the winter of\n2022, despite its regular missile attacks on critical energy and civilian\ninfrastructure across the country.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Ukrainian armed forces have proved again and again that they have been capable of not only deterring but also defeating Russia on the\nbattlefield. After preventing Russian forces from seizing\nKyiv, in a number of\nsuccessful operations they succeeded to retake Kharkiv,\nChernihiv, Sumy regions, and liberate\nthe Snake Island just kilometers off Ukraine\u2019s Black Sea\ncoastline. The latter\nhas become possible after sinking of the Russian Black\nSea Fleet\u2019s flagship \u201cMoskva\u201d,\nnotably to almost no reaction from Moscow. Predictably, Russia withdraws at\nstrength, and escalates at weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most recently, by breaking\nthrough Russia\u2019s defensive lines in the south, Ukrainian forces have liberated part of the Kherson region and managed to halt Russia\u2019s concentrated offensive in\nthe east. Now, at the\n400th<\/sup> day of what was supposed to be a \u201cthree-days military\noperation\u201d, the Russian troops have lost more than 220 000 thousand killed\nand wounded in Ukraine, according to the UK Defence Ministry<\/a> and US assessments. These figures\nare in line with the Ukrainian General Staff\u2019s official data<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Russia\nwill highly unlikely manage to attract 400,000 volunteer professional soldiers, which it\nclaimed to be the goal of its new recruitment, stepping up the pace and scope of\nsophisticated and heavy arms supplies to Ukraine can help turn the tide of the\nwar this year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the obvious\nfailure of the Russian conventional forces on the battlefield, the Kremlin will\nlikely try to play two cards at the same time \u2013 calling for an \u201cimmediate peace\u201d\n(via his allies) to freeze the situation on the ground and maintain territorial\ngains in Ukraine while simultaneously intimidating the world with a nuclear war\nif the \u201cpeace\u201d plan is not accepted. With no prospects for a negotiated\nsettlement with president Putin, who has now been issued an arrest warrant for\nthe war crimes in Ukraine and unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children to\nRussia, a protracted conflict remains the worst-case scenario for the\nforeseeable future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Playing by the\nRussian rules in any of these scenarios would entail long-lasting negative\neffects for global security, spelling the end to the international order as we\nknow it. As Peter Dickinson aptly put it, \u201cif nuclear blackmail\npays off for Putin in Ukraine and allows him to snatch a victory from the jaws\nof defeat, it will become a normalized element of international relations with\ndevastating consequences for global security\u201d, since \u201ccountries around the world will scramble to acquire nuclear\narsenals of their own in order to avoid the fate of Ukraine.\u201d This must not be\nallowed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hesitance of partners to step up\ntheir military support to Ukraine and the desire of some leaders to \u201cappease\nthe aggressor\u201d were understandable (though unjustified) in\nthe first months of the invasion \u2013 when Russia was still seen as the world\u2019s second strongest army,\nthe scope of the Russian\natrocities in Ukraine were largely unknown\nand the hopes for a peaceful resolution still there. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, as the myths of the Russian greatness have been\ndebunked, the corridor for escalation narrowed and the capabilities of the\nUkrainian armed forces boosted by the Western training and arms supplies, the international community should join Kyiv in aiming for an unequivocal victory of Ukraine in\nits 1991 borders, including Crimea. This will be not only the most legitimate\nand moral but also the most pragmatic and reasonable way to end this war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Dr. Yevgeniya Gaber<\/strong> is a Ukrainian foreign policy expert, non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council IN TURKEY and the Center in Modern Turkish Studies, Carleton University. Prior to this, she worked as a foreign policy advisor to the Prime Minister of Ukraine and deputy director of the Diplomatic Academy at the MFA of Ukraine. She has a diplomatic background from her foreign assignment at the Embassy of Ukraine in Ankara in 2014-2018 and academic experience from the Odesa National Mechnikov University (Ukraine) and Carleton University (Canada), where she has taught graduate courses on T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s foreign policy and Black Sea security. Dr. Gaber has published numerous academic articles, policy papers and book chapters on European and regional security, with a particular focus on Ukrainian and Turkish foreign policies. She has delivered lectures in diplomatic and defence academies across Europe and is a frequent commentator in international media.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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To cite this work:<\/strong> Dr. Yevgeniya Gaber, “One Year of the Full-Scale Russian Invasion of Ukraine: How a Small Country Has Ruined a Great Russia Myth”, Panorama<\/em>, Online, 26 April 2023, https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/blog\/2023\/04\/26\/yg\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Copyright@UIKPanorama.<\/em> All on-line and print rights reserved. Opinions expressed in works published by the Panorama<\/em> belongs to the authors alone unless otherwise stated, and do not imply endorsement by the IRCT, Global Academy, or the Editors\/Editorial Board of Panorama. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the world has crossed the threshold of the first anniversary of the Russian war in Ukraine, experts from all over the world are examining the shifts it caused in international system, geopolitical alliances, national security strategies and regional settings. Indeed, the global implications of Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine are multifold and the processes […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":202,"featured_media":10040,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[512,486,507],"tags":[656,760,621,644],"class_list":["post-11388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crisis-in-ukraine","category-opinion","category-russia","tag-english","tag-putin-en","tag-russia","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/202"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11388"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11388\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10040"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}