{"id":11409,"date":"2023-02-23T13:55:06","date_gmt":"2023-02-23T13:55:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/2023\/02\/mb\/"},"modified":"2024-11-20T21:47:46","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T18:47:46","slug":"iran-and-the-iraqi-shiites-a-cyclical-relationship-mehmet-bardakci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/2023\/02\/iran-and-the-iraqi-shiites-a-cyclical-relationship-mehmet-bardakci\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran and the Iraqi Shiites: A Cyclical Relationship – Mehmet Bardak\u00e7\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran not only has religious objectives\nin Iraq but also geopolitical interests. Iran seeks to export the Iranian\nrevolution to Iraq. At the same time, Iraq provides Iran geopolitical\nadvantages that help increase Tehran\u2019s regional clout. After the overthrow of Saddam\nHussein by the US in 2003, the influence of Iran in Iraq has increased\ndramatically. However, recently, Iran has lost its popularity even among the\nShia communities in Iraq, who prefer an independent Iraq and oppose Iranian\ninvolvement in Iraqi internal affairs. The objective of this piece is to\ndemonstrate the changing Iraqi perceptions of the Iranian presence in Iraq and\nthe main aspects of this change. Iraqis\u2019 attitudes towards the Iranian policies\nin their territory are important since they determine the weight of Iran in\nIraqi politics. This, in turn, has a significant influence on Iran\u2019s role in\nits neighborhood. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iranian\nInterests in Iraq<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the\nUS invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran has been supporting the Shia communities,\nviewing them as a counterbalance against the domination of the Iraqi state by\npan-Arab or nationalist segments of the Iraqi population. Iran\u2019s interest in\nIraq originates not only from Tehran\u2019s desire to serve its own interests and\nkeep Iraq weak but also from the religious philosophy of guardianship of\nthe Islamic jurist (vilayat-e\nfaqih<\/em><\/a>), which\naims to spread the Islamic revolution to other Shia countries, including Iraq.\nAccording to this concept, the Supreme Leader of Iran is the representative of\nthe 12th<\/sup> Imam for the whole Shia population (i.e., in the world).\nThis means that Qom, the Supreme Leader\u2019s religious center in Iran, is regarded\nas the supreme authority for the entire Shia. Thus, Qom challenges the Shia\nreligious stronghold in Najaf, Iraq. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran also has geopolitical interests\nin Iraq, which provides a connection land to its partners in Lebanon and Syria.\nThis strategic asset has become all the more important since the outbreak of\nthe Syrian conflict in 2011 and the threat by ISIS since 2014. Iran has further\ninterests insofar as the USA and its Western allies no longer have a major influence\nin Iraq, and Tehran also wants to reduce the influence there of regional\npowerhouses Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, Iraq provides a sizeable market\nfor Iranian goods and services, including power and gas\nsupplies.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Changing Iraqi Perceptions about the Iranian\nInvolvement in Iraq<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran had hoped that its Shia political system, as the first model of governance in the Shia world, would serve as an example for other Shia communities, including Iraq. However, despite the dominance of the Shia community in the rule of Iraq after 2003, the Iraqis have not chosen an Islamic political system based on the Iranian model. The non-religious model of governance in Iraq even poses an existential threat to the Iranian political system. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Many Iraqi Shiites have developed a negative opinion of Iran\u2019s involvement in Iraq, and in recent years, Iran has lost its capacity to serve as an example for Shia political Islam there.<\/a> The latest public opinion polls in Iraq<\/a> demonstrate that more than 85 percent of Iraqis and 82 percent of the Shia take a negative view of Iran\u2019s role in their country (chart 1). Similarly, the Iraqis who believe that Iran is a reliable ally number just 18 percent overall and 23 percent of the Shia population (chart 2). Following the rise of ISIS in 2014, Iranians aided Baghdad in fending off the jihadist assaults, bolstering a positive Iranian image in Iraq, and Iran-affiliated armed groups have been fighting against ISIS within the framework of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).<\/a> After 2020, however, internal disagreements within the PMF led to a splitting off of some PMF brigades, curtailing Iran\u2019s struggles to keep the Iraqi Shiite groups united. Thus, while a public opinion survey in 2017<\/a> found that almost 70 percent of Iraqis viewed Iran positively, the same public opinion poll in 2020 found Iran\u2019s popularity to have declined dramatically, to 15 percent. Even though some Iranian officials acknowledge that Iran has lost some of its soft power in Iraq because of its attempts to export the revolution there, the revolutionary segments of the Iranian state insist on hardline policies in Iraq, as well as regionally. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Iran has tense relations with some Shia communities in Iraq. Influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who espouses Iraqi\nnationalism, dislikes Iranian influence in Iraq. Al-Sadr supports an\nindependent Iraq under the banner of \u201cneither Eastern nor Western\u201d involvement\nin Iraq, which equates to \u201cneither Iran nor the USA\u201d and favors an Iraq that is\nmilitarily independent of Iran.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

An important point of contention between the Iran-backed Shia communities\nand al-Sadr is that the latter wishes to develop Iraq\u2019s relations with the Arab\nstates, including Saudi Arabia, which competes with Iran for influence in the\nregion. After the\nUS-led occupation of Iraq in 2003, Sadrist forces, with the support of Iran, were\none of the most active groups that fought US troops. During the past decade, however,\nal-Sadr has changed course and become a nationalist figure. Since the\nassassination of Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020,\nal-Sadr has increased his criticism of Iran. The main reason for this change\ncould be to echo the wish for less Iranian influence in the country among\nIraqis, who generally want to see a stronger and more independent government. Similarly,\nformer Shiite Iraqi Prime Minister and Secretary General of the Shiite Dawa\nParty Nouri al-Maliki was critical of Iranian activities in Iraq, stating\nthat \u201copposition to the US\u2013Israeli\u2013Saudi axis does not permit Iran to interfere\nin Iraq<\/a>.\u201d Another influential Iraqi cleric not on good terms with the Iranian\nleadership is Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Al-Sistani is at loggerheads with\nIran\u2019s top cleric Ali Khamenei over the composition of the PMF in particular<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The launch of the\n\u201cmaximum pressure\u201d campaign against Iran by the Trump Administration in 2018\nincreased the possibility of turning Iraq into a battleground between\nWashington and Tehran, raising concerns in Iraq. Moreover, the rise of illegal\nand extrajudicial activities by some Shia communities allied with Iran has\nraised question marks about the Iranian influence in Iraq<\/a>. The failure of the Iran-supported government in Iraq to rule the\ncountry dealt another blow to Iranian influence there, inducing Iraqi\nprotesters demanding a reduction in Iranian influence to attack its consulates\nin Karbala and Najaf in 2019. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, Iranian\ninfluence in Iraq has had its ups and downs, but it has recently been declining\ndue to the fact that Iraqis as a whole want their country to take an\nindependent course. Even the Shia community in Iraq objects to the Iranian\ninvolvement in Iraqi internal affairs. Over the years, pro-Iranian groups in\nIraq have changed their positions towards Iran\u2019s presence in their country. An\nimportant Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr adopted Iraqi nationalism, parting his ways\nwith Iran. By the same token, former Shiite Iraqi Prime Minister and Secretary General of the Shiite\nDawa Party Nouri al-Maliki disliked Iranian policies in Iraq. Another\ninfluential Iraqi cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has not been on the\nsame page over the composition of the PMF. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It goes without\nsaying that waning Iranian sway poses a threat to its objective to contain the\nAmerican influence in Iraq and to use the Iraqi land corridor to link to its\nproxies in Syria and Lebanon. Potentially, a diminished Iranian involvement in\nIraq could also limit its room for maneuver in the competition with its\nregional rivals Saudi Arabia and Turkey. This, in turn, would limit Iranian\ninfluence in the region. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Do\u00e7. Dr. Mehmet Bardak\u00e7\u0131 <\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Associate Professor Mehmet Bardak\u00e7\u0131 is an academic in political science and international relations. His research areas include, among others, international relations of the Middle East, EU Neighbourhood policy and Turkish foreign policy, on which he has published widely. Bardak\u00e7\u0131, who received his BA in international relations from Bilkent University and his PhD in political science from Duisburg-Essen University, has taught at various universities in Turkey and abroad. One of his recent works, which he co-authored and based on an extensive field study across Turkey, is the book on religious minorities in Turkey: Mehmet Bardak\u00e7\u0131, Annette Freyberg-Inan, Olaf Leisse and Christoph Giesel, Religious Minorities in Turkey: Alevis, Armenians, Assyrians and The Struggle to Desecuritize Religious Freedom (Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2017).<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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To cite this work:<\/strong> Mehmet Bardak\u00e7\u0131, “Iran and the Iraqi Shiites: A Cyclical Relationship”, Panorama<\/em>, Online, 23 February 2023, https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/blog\/2023\/02\/23\/mb\/ <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Copyright@UIKPanorama All on-line and print rights reserved. Opinions expressed in works published by the Panorama<\/em> belongs to the authors alone unless otherwise stated, and do not imply endorsement by the IRCT, Global Academy, or the Editors\/Editorial Board of Panorama. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Introduction Iran not only has religious objectives in Iraq but also geopolitical interests. Iran seeks to export the Iranian revolution to Iraq. At the same time, Iraq provides Iran geopolitical advantages that help increase Tehran\u2019s regional clout. After the overthrow of Saddam Hussein by the US in 2003, the influence of Iran in Iraq has […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":90,"featured_media":9931,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[506,486],"tags":[656,814,580],"class_list":["post-11409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mena","category-opinion","tag-english","tag-iran-en","tag-iraqi-shiites"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/90"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11409"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11409\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}