{"id":11440,"date":"2022-12-27T08:00:41","date_gmt":"2022-12-27T08:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/2022\/12\/ve\/"},"modified":"2024-11-20T21:56:08","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T18:56:08","slug":"how-close-is-turkey-to-the-sustainable-energy-transition-volkan-s-ediger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/2022\/12\/how-close-is-turkey-to-the-sustainable-energy-transition-volkan-s-ediger\/","title":{"rendered":"How Close Is Turkey to the Sustainable Energy Transition? – Volkan \u015e. Ediger"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Energy has been the most important economic and social\ndevelopment input, especially for societies after the Industrial Revolution.\nAlthough the share of total primary energy in the gross domestic product (GDP)\nis not very high, energy is vital for economies. For example, the share of 160\nmillion tons-oil-equivalent primary energy consumed in Turkey in 2021 in GDP is\naround 10 percent despite the extreme rise in energy prices and inflation. A\nhealthy development cannot be achieved if cheap and clean energy cannot be\nprovided uninterruptedly in sufficient quantity and quality, that is if energy\nsupply security cannot be guaranteed. For this, the most appropriate source\ndiversity should be ensured by providing the sources in the country’s energy\nbasket at the right rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The energy sources consumed by humanity have changed over\ntime, and there has been a transformation from wood to coal, which began to be\nconsumed with the invention of fire, and from there to oil and natural gas.\nWhen the most consumed energy source in any period began to be insufficient for\nproduction, a new energy source came into play, and this resource, which was\nmore effective than the old one, increased its share in the energy basket over\ntime and became the most consumed energy source. The basic dynamic of this\nchange is that the thermal value of the new energy source is higher, and its\nuse is cleaner and more practical. New energy sources have always made\nsignificant contributions to the development of societies, and the production\nfunction has been continuously increased thanks to the new technologies developed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, Turkey has not been able to keep up with\nthe global changes in energy sources, especially their domestic production. For\nexample, in 1765, with the commercialization of Thomas Newcomen’s steam engine\nby James Watt, mechanization of manufacturing forms began, and coal production,\nwhich had been used for a while, increased rapidly in England, America, Germany,\nand France thanks to the external combustion engine. In Turkey, the first\nregular coal production started in 1848 in the hard coals in the Zonguldak\nBasin. On the other hand, oil production began with the Drake well drilled in\nthe USA in 1859, and its use increased rapidly from the beginning of the\ntwentieth century with the development of internal combustion engines in England, Germany, and the USA. In\nTurkey, the first oil production was carried out in the Raman Oil Field\nin 1948. While Western societies that carried out a successful energy transition\nincreased their economic and social welfare thanks to fossil fuels consisting\nof coal, oil, and natural gas, Eastern societies, especially the Ottoman Empire\nand the Republic of Turkey, lagged in this race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, we are close to the end of the Fossil Fuel Age\nthat began with the Industrial Revolution. Because their reserves are limited,\nthey cause climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions, and the geopolitical\ntensions caused by their irregular distribution on the earth, we are trying to\ngive up the consumption of these fuels. For this purpose, the concept of\nsustainability has been developed since the UN report titled Our Common Future<\/em><\/a> published in 1987,\nand institutions such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change<\/a> (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<\/a> (IPCC)  have been organized under\nthe roof of the UN. In particular, the Kyoto Protocol signed in 1997 has been\nvery important in bringing some commitments. However, despite all these\ninternational initiatives, there has not been enough success in the new energy\ntransition, and a significant decrease in carbon dioxide emissions has not been\nachieved. The Millennium Development Goals, later adopted in 2000, were also\nunsuccessful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Upon this, more serious steps were started to be taken in\n2015. In September, the Sustainable\nDevelopment Goals<\/a> (SDGs) were adopted.\nSome 17 SDGs recommend preventing climate change and efficient and clean energy\nuse. In December 2015, The Conference of the Parties (COP 21<\/a>) gathered in Paris agreed to halve carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and to\nreach the net-zero target by 2050. The European Union was the first institution\nto enact these new targets and began implementing them with the European Green\nDeal program adopted in January 2020. \nAccording to the latest data from Net Zero Tracker<\/em><\/a>, 139 countries\nresponsible for 83 percent of total emissions and 799 of the 2000 largest\ncompanies have already declared zero-emission targets. That’s 91 percent of the\nworld economy and 80 percent of the population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite all these positive developments, whether the goals\ncan be achieved is seriously debated. Because in 2021, 82.3 percent of the\ntotal primary energy consumed in the world consisted of fossil fuels. Of these,\n31 percent was oil, 27 percent was coal, and 24 percent was natural gas. The\nshare of renewable energy was only 13.5 percent, of which 6.8 percent consisted\nof hydropower, which many experts did not include in the scope of renewables.\nIn other words, the share of renewable energy in the real sense is only 6.7\npercent, and it seems difficult to increase this rate to 100 percent in about\n30 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most important problem is that this time the\nsubstitution of energy resources will not be in the form of adding new\nresources and continuing to use the old ones as in previous transitions, but in\nsuch a way as to force the old ones to be completely abandoned. Moreover, while\nthe basic dynamics of energy source shift were economic in previous ones, this\ntime, they are purely political. Another challenge is that while there was\nalways a hegemonic power in the previous ones, and the energy source it uses\nthe most is the most consumed globally, this time, more than one option\nemerges. For example, coal was the dominant energy source during the Pax Britannica<\/em> era, and oil was the\ndominant energy source during the Pax Americana<\/em><\/a> period. The Pax Americana<\/em>, which was\ndominant for a short time after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, is no\nlonger maintained, and the global distribution of power allows new poles to\nemerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This situation brings up the “Multiple Energy Transition<\/em>” model that I proposed earlier\n(Ediger 2019 and Ediger et al. 2021).[1]<\/a>\nAccordingly, in the foreseeable future, there will be at least four global\npoles led by the US, China, the EU and Russia, and each pole’s energy\npreferences will develop differently from each other. For example, the U.S. has\nbecome the country that produces the most oil and gas in the world by focusing\non unconventional energy sources consisting of shale gas and oil developed\nsince 2007. Russia, constantly racing with the United States for hydrocarbon\nproduction, also maintains its undisputed superiority in conventional oil and\ngas. On the other hand, China is the country that produces and consumes coal,\nthe most important domestic resource in the world, while focusing on renewable\nenergy technologies to offset the emissions generated by coal. Today, China has\nbecome the country that has developed wind and solar technology the most and\nhas come out on top in renewable energy. The EU, which does not have enough\nfossil fuels, is trying to reduce energy consumption with its efficiency\nimprovements while increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy\nbasket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The goal of 100 percent renewable energy is also widely\ndiscussed. The fact that renewable energy depends largely on geography and\nclimate prevents it from being used at all hours of the day. Average capacity\nfactors on a global scale have been in the range of 20-25 percent in the wind\nand 10-15 percent in solar PV in recent years. The desired level has not been\nreached in the storage systems that will make it possible to use these\nresources at any time. None of the developed storage technologies can yet\nprovide 100 percent conversion of the stored energy, resulting in a loss of\n10-30 percent. The rapid development work on storage systems needs to be\nfurther intensified, and efficiency increased. However, the energy intensity of\nrenewable sources has also approached its limits. The efficiency of today’s\nwind turbines has exceeded 45 percent, approaching the Betz Limit of 59.3\npercent, and the efficiency of silicon and perovskite solar cells has reached\naround 25-26 percent, approaching the Shockley-Queisser Limit of 33 percent. In\nother words, productivity gains have little room to go. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to these technical considerations, fossil\nfuel geopolitics is also changing rapidly. The fact that the geography where\nthe potential of renewable resources is high is different from the fossil fuel\ngeography raises new geopolitical considerations. In the new energy transformation,\nwhere technology will be predominant, the relations between the powers that\ndominate technology and those who use it are also developing complex. Also, interesting\ndevelopments are taking place regarding critical minerals and rare earth\nelements used in new technologies. China has a monopoly on 17 rare earth\nelements, holding 60 percent of the world’s rare earth element production and\n80 percent of lithium production. The U.S. is becoming largely dependent on\nChina for these raw materials. On the other hand, Russia has 22 percent of\nreserves of rare earth elements, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo has\n60 percent of cobalt reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More important than all this is that people,\ninstitutions, and countries that benefit from fossil fuels and still have\nsignificant lobbying power will not easily accept the new energy transition and\nwill try to slow it down as much as possible. As Burke and Stephens (2018) put\nit, \u201cRenewable\nenergy transition is fundamentally a political struggle; efforts to shift from\nfossil fuels and decarbonize societies will not prove effective without\nconfronting and destabilizing dominant systems of energy power.\u201d [2]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When evaluated within the framework of these developments\non a global scale, it is seen that Turkey, which has a high import dependency\non fossil fuels, has been passive so far, while it should be more active in the\nnew energy transformation. The Kyoto Protocol of 1997 was delayed with the\nargument that it should be included in Annex-2 instead of Annex-1 and could\nonly be ratified in the parliament in 2009 after 12 years. The Paris Climate\nAgreement, which entered into force on 4 November 2015, could also be ratified\n6 years later, on 7 October 2021. On the other hand, immediately after the\nentry into force of the European Green\nDeal on 15 January 2020, a Working Group was established under the coordination\nof the Ministry of Commerce on 4 February 2020, and on 14 July 2021, it\nwas announced that the Green Deal Action Plan would be announced with the\nPresidential circular dated 15 July 2021 after the adoption of the “Fit\nfor 55” program. The plan consisting of 32 targets and 81 actions, was\npublished on July 20, 2021. On September 21, 2021, President Erdo\u011fan announced Turkey’s\nnet-zero emission target as 2053 in his speech at the UN Climate Summit, and\nthen on October 11, 2021, the name of the Ministry of Environment and\nUrbanization was changed to “Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and\nClimate Change.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turkey is now one of the 139 countries<\/a> that have announced their net-zero emissions targets. At the COP27 held in\nSharm El Sheikh, Egypt, on 6-18 November 2022, the updated Nationally\nDetermined Contribution (NDC) was announced by the Minister of\nEnvironment, Urbanization and Climate Change Murat Kurum, increasing the 21\npercent emission increase reduction target set for 2030 to 41 percent, so that\napproximately 500 million tons of emission reductions will be made and emissions\nwill be the highest in 2038 at the latest. \nHowever, despite all these positive developments, it could not be prevented\nfrom being given the “Fossil of the Day Award” to Turkey by the\nInternational Climate Action Network on the ninth day of the conference. Experts argue<\/a> that Turkey’s target\ndoes not mean “reduction” but actually “increase” and that\nthe emission from 523.9 million tons in 2020 will increase to 694 million tons\nin 2030, an increase of about 32 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turkey, which has missed the transition from wood to coal\nand from coal to oil for nearly a century, must succeed in transitioning from\nfossil fuels to renewable energy to not fall behind this time. This\ntransformation should not be seen merely as a reduction in emissions necessary\nto prevent global climate change because this transformation points to a total\nchange in the country’s economy and social life based on sustainability and is\nthe beginning of the period in which the old paradigms will disappear, and a\nnew paradigm will be valid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, in the new era, the focus of geopolitics is\nturning from a resource war to a technology war. The fact that technology will\nbe the main dynamic of the new energy transition has been reaffirmed in the\nlatest study<\/a> by Future Cleantech Architects published at the World Economic Forum. <\/a>Countries\nproducing the technology necessary to convert renewable resources such as wind,\nsolar PV, and geothermal into usable energy will gain great advantages in the new\nenergy transition. According to data<\/a> from the International Renewable Energy Agency, the total number of patents\ngranted\nbetween 2000 and 2020 is 657,614, of which 36 percent is\nby China, 16 percent by the USA, 13 percent by\nJapan, 9 percent by South Korea, and 5 percent by Germany. Turkey got only 668\npatents in this period. The share of R&D\nin GDP and the number of R&D researchers with Ph.D. degrees are also very\nlow in Turkey. Turkey, which has a significant renewable energy potential\ngeographically, will increase its chances of success in the 21st<\/sup> century\nif it reads the codes of the new transformation correctly and takes the\nnecessary steps promptly.
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[1]<\/a> Ediger, V. \u015e., 2019, \u201cAn integrated review and analysis of the multi-energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables,\u201d Energy Procedia<\/em>, 156: 2-6. Ediger, V. \u015e., J. V. Bowlus ve A. F. Dursun, 2021, \u201cChina\u2019s Energy-Supply Security in the Multi-Energy Transition Period from Fossil Fuels to Renewable Energy\u201d, Jingzheng Ren (Ed.), China\u2019s Energy Security: Analysis, Assessment and Improvement<\/em>, World Scientific Publishing, p. 199-215.
[2]<\/a> Burke, M J. and J. C. Stephens, 2018, \u201cPolitical power and renewable energy futures: A critical review\u201d, Energy Research & Social Science<\/em>, 35: 78\u201393. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Prof. Dr. Volkan \u015e. Ediger, Kadir Has University<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Upon gaining his BS and MS degrees from the Geological Engineering Department of the Middle East Technical University, Volkan \u015e. Ediger went on to receive his PhD from the Pennsylvania State University in State College, USA. Prof. Ediger\u2019s professional career has been shaped by research, teaching, and consultancy simultaneously carried out at the Research Center of the Turkish Petroleum Corporation, the Middle East technical University, the Pennsylvania State University, and the Office of the President of the Republic of Turkey. Between 1998 and 2010, he was the first person to hold the position of the Energy Advisor to the President, where he had the chance to work with three successive presidents. In 2010, Prof. Ediger received his professorship at \u0130zmir University of Economics, where he also served as Founding Director of Research and Graduate Policies. He is currently the Founding Director of CESD-Center for Energy and Sustainable Development at the Kadir Has University in Istanbul. His current research interest includes history of energy, sustainable energy development, energy transition, energy security and geopolitics.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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To cite this work: <\/strong> Volkan Ediger, \u201cHow Close Is Turkey to the Sustainable Energy Transition?” Panorama, Online, 27 December 2022, https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/blog\/2022\/12\/27\/ve\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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This article has been prepared with the support provided to the International Relations Council<\/a> and the Global Academy<\/a> by the Heinrich B\u00f6ll Stiftung Association Turkey Representative within the scope of the project titled ‘Foreign Policy for the 21st Century; Peaceful, Equitable, and Dynamic Turkey’.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Copyright@UIKPanorama. All on-line and print rights reserved. Opinions expressed in works published by the Panorama belongs to the authors alone unless otherwise stated, and do not imply endorsement by the IRCT, Global Academy, or the Editors\/Editorial Board of Panorama.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Energy has been the most important economic and social development input, especially for societies after the Industrial Revolution. Although the share of total primary energy in the gross domestic product (GDP) is not very high, energy is vital for economies. For example, the share of 160 million tons-oil-equivalent primary energy consumed in Turkey in 2021 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":190,"featured_media":9801,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510,486,508],"tags":[608,656,563,713,640,650],"class_list":["post-11440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-100-years-of-the-republic","category-opinion","category-turkey","tag-energy-environment-resources","tag-english","tag-foreign-policy-and-diplomacy","tag-heinrich-boll-foundation","tag-sustainable-energy","tag-turkiye"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/190"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11440"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11440\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9801"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}