{"id":11467,"date":"2022-11-28T14:11:24","date_gmt":"2022-11-28T14:11:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/2022\/11\/bb\/"},"modified":"2024-11-20T22:02:11","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T19:02:11","slug":"russias-war-on-ukraine-a-structural-realist-perspective-on-the-changing-european-security-busra-bayramoglu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/2022\/11\/russias-war-on-ukraine-a-structural-realist-perspective-on-the-changing-european-security-busra-bayramoglu\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia’s War on Ukraine: A Structural Realist Perspective on the Changing European Security – B\u00fc\u015fra Bayramo\u011flu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

It has been eight months since Russia\u2019s\nwar on Ukraine. In its new strategic concept, NATO defined Russia as \u2018the most\nsignificant and direct threat\u2019 and decided to increase the number of its\ntroops from 40,000 to 300,000 along its eastern flank<\/a>. Germany raised its defense\nspending above 2 percent of its GDP. The European Union (EU) announced granting\ncandidate status to Ukraine and Moldova. Moreover, Finland and Sweden are\npreparing to become new members of NATO.  All of these developments have been triggered\nby the current aggressive policy of Russia in Ukraine. So, how did Russia get\nto the point? And why did not Russia’s previous military interventions, in Georgia\nin 2008 and in Crimea in 2014, give this motivation to the West?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian\nintervention: From Georgia to Crimea<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nrecognition of the independence of Kosovo (under UNSCR 1244) by the US and the majority\nof EU member states, and NATO\u2019s 2008 Bucharest Summit, where the alliance\npromised that Ukraine and Georgia would someday become members of NATO, have\nbeen important catalyzing events for Russia\u2019s military intervention in Georgia\nin 2008. One year later, although the reset policy between the US and Russia\nfocused on arms control, and cooperation in Iran and Afghanistan, disagreements\nover the European and post-Soviet region security continued. Consequently, emergent\nconflicts in eastern Ukraine and the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 caused a serious deterioration of\nrelations between Russia and the West<\/a>. Yet, the annexation of Crimea by Russia in\n2014 also marked the first territory seizure since the end of the\nSecond World War<\/a>.\n As a result of the diplomatic efforts of\nFrance and Germany primarily, the Minsk Protocol was signed on 5 September 2014, aimed at ending the existing\nconflicts and finding a political solution in eastern Ukraine. It, however, failed\nto resolve the conflicts because it offered the special status of districts of\nDonetsk and Luhansk oblast. Thus, contrary to these diplomatic efforts, the EU, and the US have responded to these\nmoves of Russia by imposing economic sanctions on Russian companies and\noligarchs beginning from 2014 until today. Despite all of these economic\nsanctions, Russia initiated another military intervention in Syria on behalf of\nSyrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2015 and on February 24, 2022, launched a military\noperation against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia started\nto build up military forces closer to its Ukraine border for training purposes during\nthe spring of 2021 and increased the number of its military personnel over 90.000\nin western Russia during the 2021 autumn<\/a>. On 1 December, the US Secretary of State\nAntony Blinken during his visit to Europe warned that \u2018if Russia invades\nUkraine, Washington will be prepared to act\u2019<\/a>. A few days later, the Washington\nPost published an unclassified US intelligence document, which warns that the\nnumber of Russian forces has been extremely increasing near the Ukrainian border<\/a>. Meanwhile, Russia insisted to\ndemand a legally binding security guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO sooner\nor later in the future<\/a>. On 17 December, the Russian\nMinistry of Foreign Affairs published unilaterally a draft of an agreement\ntitled \u2018Agreement on measures to ensure the security of Russia and member\nstates of the NATO\u2019, which states that \u2018the parties should not conduct any\nmilitary activity on the territory of Ukraine as well as other states in\nEastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia\u2019<\/a>.  However, NATO rejected the Russian demand and\nemphasized that all states have a right to decide on their own futures. From\nNovember 2021 to February 2022, Russia’s\nmilitary buildup near the Ukrainian border did not come to an end. On 21\nFebruary, Russia declared the independence of the Republics of Donets and\nLuhansk and announced its withdrawal from the Minsk Protocol. On 24 February, it\nlaunched a \u201cspecial military operation\u201d with the purpose of denazification and\ndemilitarization of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia and\nChanging Balance of Power in Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From a neorealist perspective, one can argue\nthat the relative decline of the West\u2019s actual power allowed for Russia\u2019s aggressive\npolicy. Consequent military interventions of Russia in Georgia, Crimea, and\nSyria occurred at a time when there were different voices in NATO,<\/a> the US, and EU member states. Moreover,\nthe Trump administration deepened that crack by serving Russia\u2019s foreign policy\ninterests.<\/a> Today, while the West has imposed economic\nsanctions against Russia, some European states, like Germany and Italy, have problems\nfinding alternative energy routes. They are still the largest European consumers\nof Russian gas and are likely to face higher prices over the upcoming winter. Moreover,\nthe emerging crises of runaway rate of inflation and costs-of-living in several\nEuropean states, and a possible Trump comeback in the US, are expected to erode\nthe support for Ukraine in the West<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nUkraine war has led to a change in the balance of power on the European\ncontinent. It has brought up the issue of\nEurope’s security again. Against whom will this security be provided and who\nwill provide it? For now, Russia has played the role of an international scapegoat,\nbut it does not mean that Russia will not become a \u2018European’ again<\/em><\/strong>. At\nthe Munich Security Conference, a week before the Russian military intervention,\nGerman Chancellor, Olaf Scholz was asked \u2018whether Russia will be identified closer\nto China if it invades Ukraine?\u2019. Scholz\u2019s answer was that \u2018there are also\ndisagreements between Russia and China\u2019. Eventually, Russia does not seek to\ncreate an alternative international system<\/a>, but provides the consistent\napplication of the balance of power that was established after the end of the Second\nWorld War. A potential conflict between China and Russia in Siberia or Central\nAsia is likely to make Russia a European stakeholder in the international\nsystem again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although\npersonal and ideological explanations about Russia- Ukraine war are not wrong. However, I argue that structural\nrealism can provide more explanatory arguments. Beyond Russian President\nVladimir Putin’s psychological breakdown<\/a>,\nthe reason why Russia invaded Ukraine, the global reactions to the war, and the current\nsituation have led us to think about the international power structures. Kenneth\nN. Waltz, in his work, Theory of International Politics<\/em> (1979), claimed\nthat the structure of a system changes with changes\nin the distribution of capabilities across the system\u2019s units, that is the\nstates, and changes in the structure also change how the states will behave. As\nthe structure influences states\u2019 behavior, the system will tend to restore a\ndisrupted balance of power. Thus, I argue that the invasion of Ukraine has accelerated\nchanges in the distribution of capabilities across the states, particularly in\nEurope. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Make Europe Balanced\nAgain<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We live in a world where\nthe 1990\u2019s era of liberal victory has faded due to the 2008 financial crisis,\nthe Trump administration in the U.S.,<\/a> the Covid-19 pandemic,\nand lastly Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine. This international structure, which is\nanarchic, nuclear, and multipolar forces states to look to their own resources\nto ensure their security. The quest for rearmament and energy independence in\nEurope against Russia has reminded us that it will continue to do so. During Russia\u2019s\ninvasion of Ukraine, we\u2019ve also seen that the aim of Ukraine’s demilitarization,\nfor Russia, has shifted to Ukraine’s territorial gains. The war has as another\nreminder of the importance of spheres of influence among the great powers, although\nthe mutual destruction in the nuclear age constrains the great power war. Thus,\nas seen in Europe, the change in the distribution of power may continue to show\nits reflection in different regions, such as Central Asia. Since\ndifferent states tend to act in similar power positions, the distribution of power in Europe is likely\nto be balanced with the rise of China. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>
\n
B\u00fc\u015fra Bayramo\u011flu , Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

B\u00fc\u015fra Bayramo\u011flu is a PhD candidate at Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Department of International Relations. She holds an MA degree in Caucasus Studies from Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University and BA in International Relations from Gazi University. Her research currently focuses on the Realist IR theory, great power competition, international order, and international security. <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

To cite this work:<\/strong> B\u00fc\u015fra Bayramo\u011flu, \u201cRussia’s War on Ukraine: A Structural Realist Perspective on the Changing European Security\u201d, Panorama<\/em>, Online, 28 November 2022, https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/blog\/2022\/11\/28\/bb\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Copyright@UIKPanorama.<\/em> All on-line and print rights reserved. Opinions expressed in works published by the Panorama<\/em> belongs to the authors alone unless otherwise stated, and do not imply endorsement by the IRCT, Global Academy, or the Editors\/Editorial Board of Panorama. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It has been eight months since Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine. In its new strategic concept, NATO defined Russia as \u2018the most significant and direct threat\u2019 and decided to increase the number of its troops from 40,000 to 300,000 along its eastern flank. Germany raised its defense spending above 2 percent of its GDP. The European Union (EU) announced granting candidate status […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":188,"featured_media":9721,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[512,486,507],"tags":[656,610,760,621,644],"class_list":["post-11467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crisis-in-ukraine","category-opinion","category-russia","tag-english","tag-european-security","tag-putin-en","tag-russia","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/188"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11467"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11467\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9721"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}