{"id":11476,"date":"2022-11-18T13:13:35","date_gmt":"2022-11-18T13:13:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/2022\/11\/vsa\/"},"modified":"2024-11-20T22:03:46","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T19:03:46","slug":"a-long-way-from-overcoming-the-populist-threat-notes-on-the-2022-brazilian-presidential-election-vinicius-silva-alves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/2022\/11\/a-long-way-from-overcoming-the-populist-threat-notes-on-the-2022-brazilian-presidential-election-vinicius-silva-alves\/","title":{"rendered":"A Long Way from Overcoming the Populist Threat: Notes On The 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election – Vin\u00edcius Silva Alves"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

On October 30th, after a long and violent electoral\ncampaign\u2014which unrolled in a hostile environment marked by Jair Bolsonaro\u2019s allegations\nagainst the electoral process, fake news, and episodes of harassment and\nassault\u2014the Brazilians chose Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva to be their next\npresident. Lula thus gained his third chance to serve as the chief executive\nsince he ruled the country from 2003 to 2009, when his second mandate ended amid\nhigh approval ratings, with over 80% of voters approving his previous\nadministrations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He defeated Bolsonaro, the first incumbent in the country\u2019s\nhistory to fail to be re-elected, following the latter\u2019s success in the 2018\npresidential run as the anti-establishment candidate. What brought about this outcome?\nWhat should we expect in the near future? Can the 2022 Brazilian presidential election\nbe seen as a successful example of resisting the populist threat?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A founder of the Workers Party (PT), Lula, now aged\n77, has been a well-known political figure since the 1980s, simultaneously esteemed\nand rejected by the electorate to similar degrees. After two successful\nmandates, he easily gathered the backing of the left-wing electorate but needed\nadditional support to beat Bolsonaro since the majority of Brazilian voters are\nnot progressive or inclined to the left. In an attempt to build a broader\ncoalition, Lula counted on the help of influential political leaders to weaken\nthe opposition of center-right voters to him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To this end, he selected as his vice-president Geraldo\nAlckmin, a former governor of S\u00e3o Paulo state and his major challenger in the\n2006 Brazilian presidential elections. Alckmin is a respected leader across the\ncountry, especially among entrepreneurs and conservatives. For decades he was\nalso one of the most influential figures of the PSDB (the Social Democratic\nBrazilian Party), a center-right party that he left after internal disputes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lula also obtained broader support for his candidacy\nby bringing in ideologically diverse figures such as Marina Silva, a globally\nrespected leader who had served as Minister of the Environment, and Simone\nTebet, an MDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement Party) senator who reached third place\nin this presidential election and decided to support the PT candidate in the\nrun-off. Sensing that this could be the most relevant election since the\ntransition to democracy, some economists who helped the country to reach\neconomic stability with the implementation of the Real (Brazil\u2019s currency) after\nthe end of the military dictatorship have also embraced this broad front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To understand the level of dissent in the country, it\nis relevant to note that Lula’s victory came after he was imprisoned following\na highly controversial process conducted by Sergio Moro, a former judge, who\nalso served as Minister of Justice for Bolsonaro\u2019s administration. After reacquiring\nhis political rights, the former president was convinced that the country\nneeded a broad coalition to restore the democratic landscape. In order to\npreserve the political institutions outlined by the 1988 Brazilian\nConstitution, a special effort was required. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, while Bolsonaro insisted on rejecting the\ndiversity and pluralism now found in Brazil, appealing to a binary populist narrative\nthat recognizes only two groups (allies and enemies), Lula realized that working\nwith ideologically diverse sectors of Brazilian society was key to restoring\nthe democratic environment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolsonaro’s defeat can also be seen as a sign of public\ndissatisfaction with his presidency. In the 2018 election, although he had been\na congressman for several mandates, he could present himself as an outsider\nsince no one would have expected him to be next in line to be the Brazilian\nChief Executive. However, at the end of his first term, vaguely blaming the\nsystem for the poor results of his administration was not enough to win the\n2022 election. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here we see the difficulty facing a populist leader wishing\nto maintain his political support. Presenting himself in 2018 as an anti-establishment\nleader, Bolsonaro had argued that he was the candidate who could make people\u2019s\nlives better since he had not previously been involved with the political\nfigures and institutions that he claimed were preventing the country from\nthriving. After winning that election, he was held accountable for his actions\nand misjudgments during his time in office. Bolsonaro was found wanting by the\nBrazilian electorate, essentially because of his poor management of the Covid-19\ncrisis and his failure on the economic front. It is worth noting, however, that\na large proportion of voters still trust his judgment and agree with him on a\nwide range of subjects. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite his administration\u2019s poor results, he lost the\n2022 election by only a narrow margin, winning only approximately 2 million\nvotes fewer than Lula, which represents around 1.8% of votes cast. Given these circumstances,\nit is reasonable to suppose that there is an implied ideological component\ndriving voters\u2019 preferences in Brazil, which may preserve his power in the\nfuture or pave the way for another far-right leader. For this reason, Bolsonaro\ninsisted on following the same strategy that had favored him in the 2018\nelection, believing that re-election was possible if he could appeal to the\nelectorate\u2019s moral conscience by presenting his candidacy as some sort of redemption\nagainst political corruption in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazil still has a long way to go to demobilize the\nfar-right in the coming years, and this is the major political challenge it\nfaces. Some of the senators, governors, and federal deputies elected in 2022\nwill not immediately turn their backs on Bolsonaro and will certainly offer\nharsh opposition to Lula\u2019s government. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the potential influence of extreme-right\npopulist groups in Brazil can only be measured after Lula’s future\nadministration has developed and levels of government approval can be judged,\nand will essentially depend on specific events that may challenge the future of\nthese groups. In this respect, it is worth noting that the Electoral Supreme Court\nis pressing charges against certain political figures, including entrepreneurs\nthat lead or finance far-right groups. The outcomes of these inquiries may\nhinder the continued activities of such groups, and suppress the political\nrights of their backers, potentially accelerating the decline of the far-right\nin the political landscape. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lula\u2019s next term of office has started a process that may\nundermine, little by little, the relevance of these extremist groups, or at\nleast weaken resistance to a left-wing leader. Indeed, the cabinet guiding the\ntransition from Bolsonaro\u2019s administration to that of Lula, coordinated by his\nvice-president Alckmin, includes a diverse range of political figures,\nrepresenting a broad coalition that may undermine extremism in the future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

By including center-right politicians in his cabinet,\nLula sends a powerful message that the winner should not take it all. Although\nthis may be unpalatable to a left-wing voter, it is undoubtedly a strong\nantidote to the populist approach to addressing public issues, especially in a\nmultiparty system. With political support from center and right-wing parties in\nthe cabinet, especially in the Legislative branch, the next president can expect\nbetter results than the previous populist administration, which may dampen\npopulist enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lula\u2019s past experience and his acknowledged political\nskills also bring some hope that internal political tensions will be processed\nthrough official channels from now on. We may also be able to expect that\nBrazil can strengthen its leading position in the global community regarding\nclimate and natural resources management. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rebuilding a democratic system in the aftermath of a\npopulist experiment is not a simple task. It requires leaders to strengthen\npolitical institutions, reduce inequalities, pursue improvements in relevant\npublic policy areas such as health and education, and reduce poverty indexes, all\nof which are significant challenges for the next administration. However,\nsharing this burden with legitimate, ideologically diverse political groups\ncould create optimism and may offer a hint as to how to overcome future\npopulist threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>
\n

Vinicius Silva Alves , University of Brasilia (UnB) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vin\u00edcius Silva Alves holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Brasilia (UnB) and was a Visiting Graduate Student at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD).His Post-Doctoral research, conducted at the Federal University of S\u00e3o Carlos (UFSCar), Brazil, is funded by The S\u00e3o Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP). Currently, he studies party membership, intraparty democracy, and party systems from a comparative perspective, working primarily with quantitative and experimental methods. He also served as Brazil’s country anchor for the Democratic Accountability and Linkages Project (DALP), hosted at Duke University.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

To cite this work :<\/strong> Vinicius Silva Alves, \u201cA Long Way from Overcoming the Populist Threat: Notes On The 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election” , Panorama<\/em>, Online , 18 November 2022, https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/blog\/2022\/11\/18\/vsa\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Copyright@UIKPanorama. All on-line and print rights reserved. Opinions expressed in works published by the Panorama<\/em> belongs to the authors alone unless otherwise stated, and do not imply endorsement by the IRCT, Global Academy, or the Editors\/Editorial Board of Panorama. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On October 30th, after a long and violent electoral campaign\u2014which unrolled in a hostile environment marked by Jair Bolsonaro\u2019s allegations against the electoral process, fake news, and episodes of harassment and assault\u2014the Brazilians chose Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva to be their next president. Lula thus gained his third chance to serve as the chief […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":187,"featured_media":9695,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[486,505],"tags":[603,560,656,596],"class_list":["post-11476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","category-world","tag-brazil","tag-election","tag-english","tag-populism"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/187"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11476"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11476\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9695"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}