{"id":11482,"date":"2022-11-14T13:08:47","date_gmt":"2022-11-14T13:08:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/2022\/11\/kv-2\/"},"modified":"2025-06-17T22:10:38","modified_gmt":"2025-06-17T19:10:38","slug":"will-turkey-israeli-relations-withstand-the-challenges-karel-valansi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/2022\/11\/will-turkey-israeli-relations-withstand-the-challenges-karel-valansi\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Turkey-Israeli relations withstand the challenges?- Karel Valansi"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A new era began in Turkey-Israel relations. After a\nlong marathon of diplomacy, the rapprochement, which became visible with Israeli\nPresident Yitzhak Herzog\u2019s highly publicized visit to Ankara on March 9, 2022, took\nanother step forward with the meeting of President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan and\nIsraeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid in New York, during the United Nations\nGeneral Assembly meeting in September. Apart from President Erdo\u011fan’s encounter\nwith an Israeli prime minister for the first time since December 2008, another\nsymbolic meaning of this date was that it was indeed the starting point for the\ndeterioration in bilateral relations. At the time, Erdo\u011fan played the role of\nfacilitator in the talks between Syria and Israel. However, a rupture in\nTurkish-Israeli ties began with the Operation Cast Lead in Gaza on December 22,\n2008, shortly following the return from Turkey to Israel of then-Prime Minister\nEhud Olmert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turkey and Israel reappointed respective ambassadors\nmore than four years after they were called back. The decisions to raise diplomatic\nrelations to the high-ranking level and to appoint ambassadors depict the\npositive advancement reached in the normalization process between Turkey and\nIsrael. However, if Turkey and Israel are to succeed in their goal of\nstrengthening ties, they must re-establish trust and harmony in their\nrelationships. Reaching the level of an alliance the two countries enjoyed in\nthe 1990s will be a long and challenging journey. The primary barrier to this\nis the mistrust and suspicion between the two nations due to the extended\nperiod of estrangement and detachment. While a serious effort must be made to\nrebuild trust, let us remember that the normalization in bilateral relations is\nnot happening because the two countries’ leaders trust each other but because\nboth countries need it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, regional balances changed in favor of\nIsrael during the deterioration of relations. While Turkey isolated itself due\nto its foreign policy choices, the regional balances changed in favor of Israel\nwith the successive launches of the Abraham Accords, the Eastern Mediterranean\nGas Forum, and the Negev Forum. Israel currently has a strong regional presence\nand is self-assured in the strength of its economy and military power. Although\nthis does not reduce Turkey’s importance in Israel’s eyes, it nevertheless eases\nits hand regarding its expectations. In this context, the normalization process\nis proceeding in a delicate balance, and failure to meet expectations may\nadversely affect the momentum already achieved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent years, Ankara has aimed to expand Turkey’s\nmilitary and diplomatic influence in its neighborhood through an assertive\nshift in its foreign policy. However, this strategy has angered both its allies\nand neighbors. Lately, Turkey noticed that the ideologically based foreign\npolicy decisions it has been pursuing for some time had caused isolation in the\ninternational arena. Additionally, Ankara realized that due to its foreign\npolicy shift, it could not find a country to stand with it even on the issues\nwhere it is on the right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite initially remaining out of the substantial\ndevelopments in the region, particularly the Abraham Accords, Turkey has recently\nmade overtures to various countries, including Israel, the United Arab\nEmirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, with whom relations had deteriorated in the\nlast few years. As the economic crisis persists, Ankara hopes to garner support\nagainst threats to its security and draw in international investors thanks to\nthe regional rapprochements that are taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, in the perception of Turkish state\nofficials, Israel has always been considered a route to Washington. In this\ncontext, Ankara needs the support of Israel and the American Jewish Lobby,\nespecially in purchasing the new generation of F-16 aircraft from the United\nStates and renovating its F-16 fleet. This is why President Erdo\u011fan made an\neffort to maintain friendly ties with the American Jewish lobbying\norganizations, even during the darkest days of relations with Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further, Turkey, which is still outside the alliance\nthat has been formalized in the Eastern Mediterranean, seeks to enhance its\nposition in the region against the theses of Greece and Cyprus, which it\nperceives as adversaries, by repairing its relations with Israel. Finally,\nAnkara desires to become a regional energy hub by transferring Israeli natural\ngas to Europe. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turkey is a significant\nregional power for Israel. Normalizing its relations with Turkey is essential for\nensuring regional stability and strengthening Israel’s international position.\nFor Israel, developing cooperation with Turkey is a crucial victory against\nIran, which it sees as an existential threat. An essential factor accelerating\nthe normalization between the two countries is that Tehran, troubled by the\nrapprochement between Turkey and Israel, was stopped by the Turkish-Israeli\nintelligence partnership while preparing a terrorist attack against the\nIsraelis in Turkey. Furthermore, it is no secret that Israel wants to exert\npressure on Hamas through Turkey, which it views as a major danger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel has repeatedly\ndemanded the closure of the Hamas office in Istanbul. We can safely assume from\nthe statements made following the Erdo\u011fan-Lapid meeting in New York that Israel\nalso requested Ankara’s mediation on the release of Israelis held by Hamas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energy may be the issue\nthat ignited the normalization between Turkey and Israel, but it is also where the\nmost significant obstacles might be experienced. With the discovery of natural\ngas, Israel has turned into a regional energy player and has also been playing\nthis advantage as a diplomatic card to advance its relations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The alliance\nestablished through the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum has made it possible\nfor Israel to collaborate with the relevant countries on a variety of topics,\nand not just on energy. Israel does not want to lose this momentum by choosing\na side in the renewed tension between Turkey and Greece. Therefore, while\nkeeping its options open regarding energy, it will also pay attention to balancing\nits relations with both countries and the Greek Cypriots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trade is an area where both\ncountries agree on. Looking at trade volumes, Turkey and Israel already proved\nthat they could separate politics and economy even when the political relations\nwere at a standstill. Recently, the bilateral trading volume has been 8 billion\ndollars as Turkey and Israel have complementary economies and are not\ncompetitors in this respect. The bilateral trade volume is expected to increase\nfurther with political normalization. Although Israel has recently strengthened\nits economic ties with many significant economies, including India and Brazil,\nthis hasn’t altered Turkey’s importance as a close-by and large market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Palestinian issue\nis the most severe obstacle to normalizing relations between the two countries.\nAfter its relations with Israel deteriorated, Ankara abandoned its balanced\napproach. Ankara took sides between Israel and the Palestinians and between Fatah\nand Hamas. It can be interpreted as an effort to detach bilateral relations\nfrom the Palestinian issue. Anti-Israel discourses, which can occasionally\ndegenerate into antisemitism, are no longer frequently expressed. That emphasis\nis placed on the benefits the Palestinians will gain from this reconciliation.\nThe most important result of Herzog’s visit to Ankara was the decision to\ncontinue the dialogue even though they did not agree on every issue and to set\nup mechanisms to solve the problems that may arise constructively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the\nreciprocal inauguration of ambassadors, the next step should be to review the\nagreements signed in the 1990s and adapt them to present conditions. Works on\ncivil aviation have already begun. The fact that Turkish Airlines is the most\npopular foreign airline among Israelis and that Israeli airlines have resumed\nflights to Turkey demonstrate how quickly things may change in this sector. Likewise,\nthe 1996 free trade agreement between the two countries needs to be renewed.\nThe meeting of the two sides at an economic summit may accelerate the\ndevelopments in this regard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, the\ntwo sides have to keep in mind that their priorities are different. Turkey\nbrings the issue of energy, while Israel advances the issue of trade to the\nforefront of bilateral relations. There should be no unrealistic expectations\nand no emotional outbursts for progress in the reconciliation process. In\naddition to energy and trade, other areas that can be improved include\ntransportation and tourism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is optimism for\nthe future of relations between Turkey and Israel since they were able to forge\nalliance-level ties in the past and because they assisted one another in\nhumanitarian efforts even during the years when their political relations were\ndeteriorating. Still, it will take more effort and time to restore the lost\nconfidence between the two countries than to break it. Turkey and Israel, who have\nadopted similar positions in the Karabakh and Ukrainian wars, can cooperate, for\ninstance, on Syria. But while Israel’s policy of pressuring Iran would support\nthis development, it also threatens to put Turkey in a dangerous position between\nIsrael and Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following November 1,\n2022, elections in Israel and the victory of Benjamin Netanyahu, question marks\narose about the future of bilateral relations. Although a known bad chemistry\nexists between Erdo\u011fan and Netanyahu, both leaders are pragmatic and most\nprobably will prefer to keep the momentum. Additionally, the normalization has\nbeen institutionalized with numerous agreements signed and ambassadors\nappointed on both sides. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With Netanyahu’s return\nto power, we may not see the sincere poses reflected in the press and this\ndevelopment may postpone Erdo\u011fan’s visit to Israel. However, Israel Defense\nMinister Benny Gantz’s visit to Ankara just days before the general election in\nIsrael and his meeting with President Erdo\u011fan and his counterpart Hulusi Akar\nare evidence of the importance both sides place to the normalization of the\nrelations. Erdo\u011fan recently sent a congratulatory letter to Netanyahu for his\nelectoral victory calling for the continuation of the cooperation between the\ntwo countries. Additionally, on November 11, 2022, \u015eakir \u00d6zkan Torunlar, an\nexperienced diplomat who had previously served as Turkey’s consul general in\nJerusalem from 2010 to 2014, was named ambassador to Israel in a presidential\ndecree. Finally, the presence of far-right Religious Zionism party in the next Israeli\ncoalition, the Ukrainian war, the energy crisis in Europe, or a rekindled\nconflict in Gaza will test the resilience of bilateral relations, which are\nmaintained along a delicate line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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This article has been prepared with the support provided to the International Relations Council<\/a> and the Global Academy<\/a> by the Heinrich B\u00f6ll Stiftung Association Turkey Representative within the scope of the project titled ‘Foreign Policy for the 21st Century; Peaceful, Equitable, and Dynamic Turkey’.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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A new era began in Turkey-Israel relations. After a long marathon of diplomacy, the rapprochement, which became visible with Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog\u2019s highly publicized visit to Ankara on March 9, 2022, took another step forward with the meeting of President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid in New York, during the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":181,"featured_media":9357,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[486,510,506,508],"tags":[656,713,582,650],"class_list":["post-11482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","category-100-years-of-the-republic","category-mena","category-turkey","tag-english","tag-heinrich-boll-foundation","tag-israel","tag-turkiye"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11482","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/181"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11482"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11482\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9357"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}