{"id":11515,"date":"2022-08-18T11:03:19","date_gmt":"2022-08-18T11:03:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/2022\/08\/pak-3\/"},"modified":"2024-11-20T22:11:20","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T19:11:20","slug":"pakistan-at-75-security-at-the-center-stage-sitara-noor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/2022\/08\/pakistan-at-75-security-at-the-center-stage-sitara-noor\/","title":{"rendered":"Pakistan at 75: Security at the Center Stage- Sitara Noor"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Since its\ninception, Pakistan has been facing a plethora of internal and external challenges\nthat are undermining its security. Even after 75 years of independence, the\nunsettling global and regional environment marked by great power rivalry,\neconomic competition and a hostile neighbourhood are directly affecting\nPakistan\u2019s security. In addition, numerous domestic challenges such as\ndeteriorating internal security, depleting economy, and political instability affect\nthe country\u2019s ability to effectively deal with these challenges. Despite being\nlocated at the confluence of three important regions of the world i.e., South,\nEast and West Asia, Pakistan could not utilize its full geographical potential\nas it remained busy confronting immediate and long-term security challenges. While\nthe list is long, the following challenges namely the great power rivalry, unsettled neighbourhood, and resurging terrorism are of immediate concern with greater bearing on Pakistan\u2019s\nfuture in near and long term. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caught in the Crossfire of Great Power Rivalry<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the\nglobal front, one of the biggest concerns for Pakistan is to balance its relations with both the United States and\nChina. After an on-again, off-again relationship with the US under President\nTrump, the Pak-US relations plummeted to their lowest after the latter\u2019s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. The schisms widened over\nthe US’s alleged involvement<\/a> in the toppling of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf<\/em> (PTI,\nPakistan Movement for Justice) government as claimed by the outgoing Prime\nMinister Imran Khan. Although the new Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz<\/em> (PMLN)\ngovernment under Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has vowed to improve Pakistan\u2019s relationship\nwith the US and expand\ncooperation with China, any move in\nthat direction is invariably affected by the growing US-China rivalry in the\nregion at large. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While\nPakistan needs US support to keep its economy afloat through the International Monetary\nFund (IMF) loans, it cannot afford to do so at the cost of its strategic military,\neconomic and technical relationship with China. After having completed the\nharvest phase of the much-celebrated $62\nbillion worth China-Pakistan Economic Corridor\n(CPEC) – the flagship project of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative,\nIslamabad is required to prioritise and gear toward the crucial second phase of\nthe project that will determine its success through rapid industrialization and\nregional connectivity. To date, Pakistan has managed to insulate its strategic\nand economic cooperation with China from US interference, however, with growing\nUS-China rivalry, that space is fast reducing, forcing Islamabad to make some\nstark and difficult choices. The perceived<\/a> slowdown of CPEC projects has raised concerns not only\nabout Pakistan\u2019s capacity to manage the program but also about its ability to\nsustain growing external pressure. With War in Ukraine, Pakistan is facing\nadditional pressure<\/a> to abandon its neutral position. Walking on that tight\nrope and not falling victim to the great power rivalry is going to be the\nbiggest concern for Islamabad in the near and long-term future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Eastern Question: Crises with India under Nuclear\nOverhang  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nUS-China rivalry is negatively affecting the already volatile neighbourhood as\nwell. India\u2019s projection by the US as the net security provider in the\nIndo-Pacific region against China has further strained the relationship between\nPakistan and India. The ongoing contestation over the disputed territory of\nJammu and Kashmir has led to many serious crises under the nuclear overhang.\nUnder the Indo-US strategic partnership, India has acquired military equipment\nof around USD 20 billion from\nWashington in the past 15 years. Additionally, India has signed several defence\ncooperation agreements including the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement\n(BECA) for geospatial cooperation (2020), the Communications Compatibility and\nSecurity Agreement (2018) and the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement\n(2016). These agreements will provide India with a significant edge over Pakistan in its geospatial navigation and\nintelligence capabilities.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

India is pursuing a comprehensive military modernisation\nprogramme including air, ground, naval and strategic nuclear forces e.g. India has\nacquired multi-role\nRafale fighter jets from France and also\nmanaged to acquire the S-400 air\ndefence system from Russia, successfully bypassing the US sanctions. While India justifies its massive\narms build-up against the Chinese threat, most of these technologies are going\nto be used against Pakistan in any future conflict. To offset India\u2019s arms buildup, Pakistan\nis enhancing some existing options such as up gradation of JF-17 Thunder,\nBlock-III and further development of multiple independently targetable reentry\nvehicle (MIRV) capability. Pakistan air force has also inducted J-10C fighter jets\nthat will enhance Pakistan\u2019s conventional combat capability against India,\nthereby strengthening mutual vulnerability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apart from these defence procurements, India is ostensibly changing<\/a> its nuclear posture by steadily doing away with the \u201cNo\nFirst Use\u201d (NFU) pledge and flirting with the idea of pre-emptive counterforce\nstrikes. These developments are undermining fragile strategic stability in\nSouth Asia and require serious attention. While a backdoor channel with India purportedly remains active, any major\nbreakthrough is seemingly impossible at the moment, given the obstinate nature\nof the current BJP leadership in India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Afghan Crisis and Resurging Terrorism <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\naggravating security situation in Afghanistan under the Taliban is directly\naffecting Pakistan\u2019s stability. Pakistan has been seeking greater international\nengagement with Afghanistan even at the risk of being labelled a Taliban\nsympathiser, mainly because any spill over is likely to adversely affect\nPakistan\u2019s security. According to the UNHCR estimates, there are around 1.44 million<\/a> registered Afghan refugees already residing in Pakistan\nand Islamabad has expressed its inability to host more. However, as a result of the\nworsening humanitarian crisis, there is\na perennial risk of more Afghan refugees coming to Pakistan in future in search\nof food and safety, despite a relative calm at the moment.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taliban\u2019s\ncontrol over Afghanistan has also aggravated Pakistan\u2019s terrorism problem. It\nhas revitalised domestic terror organisations such as the Tehreek Taliban\nPakistan (TTP) and other transnational terror outfits such as the Islamic State\nKhorasan Province (ISKP). According to Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies\n(PIPS) report<\/a>, there is up to 42 per cent increase in terrorist attacks in\n2021 from the previous year with an almost 40 %\nincrease in fatalities of security personnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nTaliban\u2019s inability or complacency to control the Tehreek-Taliban Pakistan\n(TTP) operations from Afghan soil has already become a sore point in the\nbilateral relationship. Despite the Taliban\u2019s repeated assurance to not allow\nAfghan soil to be used against Pakistan, TTP has continued its attack on\nPakistani citizens and security forces with impunity, leading to a major\nescalation as Pakistan resorted to cross-border aerial\nstrikes in the Khost and Kunar provinces of\nAfghanistan. The Taliban\u2019s ongoing assistance in brokering a ceasefire between\nPakistan and TTP is unlikely to resolve the problem. The Taliban are not going\nto give up<\/a> on the TTP completely because of their cultural affinity,\ntheir common take on the Durand line issue and most importantly to continue to use them as\nleverage against Pakistan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In order\nto deal with these enduring challenges, Pakistan must make independent and\nsmart decisions through astute diplomacy. As a sovereign country, Pakistan must\nhold its ground and should not succumb to the pressure of taking sides in\nregional competitions. At the same time, while strengthening its defence\nposture, Pakistan must continue to work for peaceful resolution of all issues\nwith its neighbours. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notwithstanding\nthe challenges, Pakistan\u2019s geographical location offers great opportunities as\nwell. The same geography can be used for regional connectivity. However, any\npotential economic activity is dependent on realising Pakistan\u2019s much-touted\nshift to geo-economics as outlined in the latest National Security Policy. That\nshift will require political acumen, a sustained diplomatic effort for regional\npeace. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore,\nin order to deal with any external challenge, Pakistan must strengthen itself\nfrom within. The government must prioritise economic revival through overcoming\nenergy shortfall, curbing corruption, improving governance through broad-based\nand inclusive policies and working on non-traditional security aspects such as\nhuman security, climate change and food security etc. This will not only\nadd strength to the external outlook but will also deny space to an insider-outsider\ncollusion to undermine Pakistan\u2019s security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Sitara Noor<\/strong>, Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sitara Noor is a Senior Researcher at the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Islamabad, Pakistan since 2019. Previously, Ms Noor was a Research Fellow at the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP) in Vienna, Austria (2016-17). She also worked at the Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority as an International Relations Analyst (2008-15). She has served as a faculty member at the National University of Modern Languages for two years. She was also a visiting faculty at the National University of Science and Technology (NUST), Quaid-i-Azam University, the Foreign Services Academy of Pakistan, and the Information Services Academy of Pakistan. She was also a South Asian Voices Visiting Fellow at the Stimson Centre, Washington DC (2019-20), Visiting Fellow at Sandia National labs (2019 & 2013) and James Martin Center for Nonproliferation, Monterey, California (2013). She is serving as the Country Coordinator for the University of Gothenburg project \u201cVariety of Democracy\u201d since 2012. She regularly writes on nuclear and security issues at various national and international platforms including Aljazeera, The News, The National Interest, The Diplomat, South Asian Voices\/ Stimson Center among others. <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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To cite this work :<\/strong> Sitara Noor \u201cPakistan at 75: Security at the Center Stage\u201d, Panorama<\/em>, Online , 18 August 2022, https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/blog\/2022\/08\/18\/pak-3\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Copyright@UIKPanorama. All on-line and print rights reserved. Opinions expressed in works published by the Panorama<\/em> belongs to the authors alone unless otherwise stated, and do not imply endorsement by the IRCT, Global Academy, or the Editors\/Editorial Board of Panorama. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Since its inception, Pakistan has been facing a plethora of internal and external challenges that are undermining its security. Even after 75 years of independence, the unsettling global and regional environment marked by great power rivalry, economic competition and a hostile neighbourhood are directly affecting Pakistan\u2019s security. In addition, numerous domestic challenges such as deteriorating […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":172,"featured_media":9223,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[506,486],"tags":[656,752,612],"class_list":["post-11515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mena","category-opinion","tag-english","tag-pakistan-en","tag-security-strategy-geopolitics"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11515","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/172"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11515"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11515\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9223"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}