{"id":11524,"date":"2022-08-04T13:52:18","date_gmt":"2022-08-04T13:52:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/2022\/08\/tr-uk\/"},"modified":"2024-11-20T22:12:52","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T19:12:52","slug":"turkeys-mission-becomes-more-difficult-if-attacks-on-ukrainian-ports-continue-selmin-seda-coskun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/2022\/08\/turkeys-mission-becomes-more-difficult-if-attacks-on-ukrainian-ports-continue-selmin-seda-coskun\/","title":{"rendered":"Turkey’s Mission Becomes More Difficult If Attacks on Ukrainian Ports Continue- Selmin Seda Co\u015fkun"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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On 22\nJuly in Istanbul, Russia signed a United Nations (UN)-backed deal with Ukraine,\nTurkey and the United Nations (UN) on grain shipments that would allow the\nexport of Ukrainian grain, which had been blocked in Black Sea ports for five\nmonths due to the war, but the optimism has been short-lived. Russia, which had\npledged not to launch any attacks during the transport of grain through\nUkraine’s Black Sea ports in accordance with the deal reached, launched a\nmissile attack on the port of Odessa a day later, causing damage to its\ninfrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The deal\non grain shipments provides for the opening of corridors in the Black Sea to\nallow the movement of merchant ships to remove 25 million tonnes of grain\ntrapped in Ukrainian silos. It was decided to resume the opening of the\nUkrainian ports of Yugny, Odessa and Chornomorsk for the outflow of grain\nwithin a few days. This process will initially be valid for four months, and\nwill be automatically renewable if successful. Istanbul was designated as the\ncontrol center of the corridor. In line with the action plans submitted by the\nUN and Turkey, it has been decided to carry out joint security checks at the entry\nand exit points of the ships and to ensure the safety of maritime transport\nalong predetermined routes. The fact that a deal was reached has been welcomed\nby the world public opinion and seen as a diplomatic success of Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Any guarantee not to hit the ports by\nmissiles ?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most\nimportant point in the negotiations was the demand for the removal of mines\nplaced by Ukraine along the coastline. Russia was demanding guarantees that the\ncorridor would not lead to arms deliveries to Ukraine, while Ukraine for its\npart was seeking guarantees that Russia would not launch an attack through the\nmine-free corridor. Kiev was convinced that the clearing of the mines would be\nin Russia’s advantage if Russia’s goal was to seize the port city of Odessa in\nthe coming days. Kiev therefore demanded guarantees that Russian forces would\nnot launch an amphibious attack on Odessa before removing the mines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally,\nthe deal was reached on technical principles. Kiev received guarantees from\nMoscow that commercial convoys would not be attacked. However, there was no\nguarantee that their ports would be hit by missiles. On the morning of 23 July,\nit was reported that a missile had hit a silo in Odessa. It was stated that\nanother missile attack fell in an area close to the silo, but there was no\nnegative impact on the capacity and capability of the docks in that area.\nRussian officials announced that the attack targeted Ukrainian warships and an\nammunition depot containing Harpoon anti-ship missiles supplied from the United\nStates, and confirmed that they hit this warship as it threatened the grain\ncorridor deal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On July\n26, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the Russian\noccupation forces mounted their attacks on Zatoka village in Odessa from 13\naircraft. Followingly, the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported\nthat an air defense unit near the resort of Zatoka shot down a Russian aircraft\nthat attacked one of the military infrastructure facilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weakness of the deal, advantage of Russia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia’s\nstatement on the attack makes it hard to predict its next move. Have these\nattacks put the issue of grain shipments back into crisis? Will attacks on\nUkrainian port and maritime transport infrastructure continue? Having an accord\nis an achievement, but the lack of guarantees for its implementation and the\nuncertainty on the timetable are its biggest weaknesses. Could it be that\nRussia is taking advantage of this weakness to damage the infrastructure of\nUkrainian ports and make grain exports unfeasible? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This\nwould be a high probability. Since the beginning of the war, the balance of\nRussia’s naval power in the Black Sea has not favoured Russia. The sinking of\nthe Russian warship Moskva on 15 April delivered a psychological blow to the\nRussians. On 30 June, Russian forces withdrew from Snake Island, which is in an\nimportant strategic position to control Ukraine’s west coast, indicating that\nRussia’s naval projection of power is not going well for the time being. The\nclosure of the Straits to warships, moreover, limits the Russian navy’s room\nfor manoeuvre in the Black Sea. Both Ukraine’s mine-strewn coastline and its\nprogress in armaments, by recently acquired Harpoon anti-ship missiles, may be\npreventing Russia from incurring an irreparable loss. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However,\nit has already been four months since the Russian-Ukrainian war. The war\nbetween the two countries has clearly turned into a war of attrition. One of\nthe Kremlin’s objectives in this war of attrition is likely the economic defeat\nof Ukraine. This is exactly what the blocking of grain shipments from Ukraine\nis doing. Nevertheless, Russia made the grain shipment deal after all. Is this\nagreement, then, an indication that Russia is backtracking on its strategy of\nattrition of Ukraine? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact,\nthe deal could resume exports not only of Ukrainian grain, but also of Russian\ngoods, which had been blocked by sanctions. This indicates that Russia has\nobtained a certain easing of sanctions in exchange for the unblocking of\nUkrainian ports. Immediately after this easing, we witnessed the Russian mind\nraising its game one more notch in order to increase its own gains by armed\nattacks. The fact that Russia, which has so far carried out a missile attack in\nOdessa, hit a silo just after the grain shipment deal, may be an attempt to\ndisable Ukrainian ports as soon as possible regardless of the deal. Disabled\nports will make it difficult for Ukraine to export grain in terms of technical\nproblems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A difficult period for Turkey<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia is accused of using grain as a blackmail tool against Ukraine,\nwhich exports 90% of its grain by ship, and of stealing Ukrainian grain and\nselling it through Turkish ports to Middle Eastern and African countries,\nespecially Syria. As a matter of fact, the sighting of a Russian ship loaded\nwith grain in a Turkish port in early July caused tension with Ukraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, before the deal, Ankara was of the opinion that it\nwas important to lift international sanctions against Russia to be able to reach\nan agreement so that a secure grain corridor could be realized. Whereas,\nRussia’s attacks on Odessa were met with a firmer reaction from the Western\nstates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to all this, right after the Russia attack, Turkish Defense\nMinister Hulusi Akar said that Russia denied carrying out the strike on the\nUkrainian port Odessa. Just a few hours after Akar said this, however, Russia\nofficially claimed responsibility for the attack. How should one explain\nAnkara’s position after Akar’s statement?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nTurkish President stated that Istanbul has upped its diplomatic efforts to\nprevent any repercussions from the attack in Odessa, and urged Russia and\nUkraine to follow through on their commitments to the deal regarding the export\nof Ukrainian grains. No doubt that Turkey’s role in the grain crisis allows it\nto increase its international prestige after hosting the inconclusive peace\ntalks between Ukraine and Russia in March 2022. Nonetheless, it suffers from\nthe erosion of its political and diplomatic reputation in the international\narena. Indeed, Ukraine and many Western countries, while benefiting from\nTurkey’s role as a facilitator, are increasingly uncomfortable with what\nappears to be an overly conciliatory stance towards Russia. No matter how much\neffort Turkey makes, the continuation of Russia’s actions, which cast a shadow\nover the negotiations, will put Turkey in a difficult position. It is likely to\nbe forced into a strategic choice in the foreseeable future considering its\nrelations with the US, Russia, Ukraine and \nthe EU as well as its position in NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Dr. Selmin Seda CO\u015eKUN, Thomas More Institute (Paris)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selmin Seda Coskun has a degree in International Relations at Bilkent University. She completed a Master’s degree in International Political Economy and then obtained her doctorate at the Faculty of Political Science in Istanbul University. She started her career as an analyst in charge of political affairs for various diplomatic representations in Turkey. Concurrently, she worked as a professor in international relations at the Faculty of Political Sciences of the University of MEF (Istanbul). Selmin Seda Coskun is currently an associated researcher conducting Turkish studies at Thomas More Institut in Paris. She is also lecturer in political science at Paris Catholic University. She maintains academic studies on geopolitics in cyberespace at the University of Paris VIII. She is the author of Vekalet Sava\u015flar\u0131 ve \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc Zor Sorunlardaki Yeri [The Proxy Wars in International Conflicts] (Ankara, Nobel Bilimsel Eserler, 2021).<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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To cite this work :<\/strong> Selmin Seda Co\u015fkun\u201c Turkey’s Mission Becomes More Difficult If Attacks on Ukrainian Ports Continue\u201d, Panorama<\/em>, Online , 04 August 2022, https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/blog\/2022\/08\/04\/tr-uk<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Copyright@UIKPanorama. All on-line and print rights reserved. Opinions expressed in works published by the Panorama<\/em> belongs to the authors alone unless otherwise stated, and do not imply endorsement by the IRCT, Global Academy, or the Editors\/Editorial Board of Panorama. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On 22 July in Istanbul, Russia signed a United Nations (UN)-backed deal with Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations (UN) on grain shipments that would allow the export of Ukrainian grain, which had been blocked in Black Sea ports for five months due to the war, but the optimism has been short-lived. Russia, which had […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":169,"featured_media":9211,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[512,486],"tags":[656,570,597,621,650,644],"class_list":["post-11524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crisis-in-ukraine","category-opinion","tag-english","tag-grain","tag-port","tag-russia","tag-turkiye","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11524","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/169"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11524"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11524\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9211"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}