{"id":11552,"date":"2022-04-25T09:37:21","date_gmt":"2022-04-25T09:37:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/2022\/04\/sicilian-trap-why-russia-is-doomed-to-fail\/"},"modified":"2024-11-21T00:11:08","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T21:11:08","slug":"the-sicilian-trap-why-is-russia-doomed-to-fail-in-ukraine-celil-yigit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/2022\/04\/the-sicilian-trap-why-is-russia-doomed-to-fail-in-ukraine-celil-yigit\/","title":{"rendered":"The Sicilian Trap: Why Is Russia Doomed to Fail in Ukraine-Celil Yi\u011fit"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What if a great power tries to eliminate relatively weak actor rather than compete with peer adversary while in a great power rivalry?  In 415 BCE, the largest fleet in Athenian history begun its expedition of Sicily. The original plan at the Sicilian expedition was to help Athenian allies (Thucydides, 2009, 310-311). But it turned into a full scale invasion. Neither the pandemic that killed Pericles, nor Sparta’s superior ground forces were sufficient to stop Athens. It was the miscalculated expedition to the relatively weak target – the Sicilian expedition- that brought defeat to Athens in Peloponnesian Wars. Athenians lost more than 40,000 men and more than 200 ships together with their prestige (Brice 2013). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Great powers usually neglect their adversaries\nand tend to focus on relatively weak targets. These great power interventions against\nrelatively weak targets may sometimes turn out to be self-defeating what I call\nthe \u2018Sicilian Trap\u2019. The Sicilian Trap is a perilous quagmire that some states\nmay even lose their great power status too. In addition, although the great\npowers return victorious from this kind of intervention, it will not be easy\nfor them to recover from the wounds inflicted by the Sicilian Trap. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Sicilian Trap is a Realist concept that\ntries to explain some failures of great powers\u2019 behaviours. So, it is an\nalternative explanation to some contemporary Realists\u2019 stories<\/a>. My theory rests upon a mere\nassertion that states are irrational actors and they always prone to fall into\ntraps. This does not mean that states are leading by irrational people or policy\nmakers are taking unplanned decisions. It means that war in itself is an\nirrational behaviour and also a very costly trap (Bueno de Mesquita, 1981). States do not consider\nstability or world peace as they mainly focus on their self-interest. Therefore,\nstates are helpless nothing but running towards traps, which leads to catastrophic\nconsequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On February 24th<\/sup>, Russia launched a military\ncampaign against Ukraine. The main goal of the Russian invasion was presented\nas \u201csaving Ukraine from the West<\/a>\u201d like the Athenians who tried to\nsave allies in Sicily. Whether it is West\u2019s fault<\/a> or Putin\u2019s delusion<\/a>; today, Russia is walking into the Sicilian\nTrap that may eventually inflicts great harm on its grand struggle. Russia\u2019s\ngrand struggle has always been to be the West\u2019s balancer or the West has always\nbeen its holder. The West was France in 18th<\/sup> century, Britain in 19th<\/sup>\nand the US in 20th<\/sup> and 21st<\/sup> centuries for Russia. Nonetheless,\nRussia is on the verge of losing its status. Whether Russia wins or loses in\nUkraine, this invasion will be the final nail in its coffin. China has already begun\nto take this position which is being an main adversary of the West. Let me briefly\nelaborate with few specific points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unnecessary fight: First and foremost, Russian\ninvasion of Ukraine is an unnecessary fight. As The Athenian General Nicias,\nopposed to The Sicilian expedition, argued that \u201cif we meet some serious\nopposition and fail, our enemies (Spartans) will be quick to make their attack\u201d\n(Thucydides, 313). Ukraine would not be a member of NATO anyway. I don\u2019t think\nmany NATO members including France and Germany let Ukraine join the alliance\ntoo. Because it means a serious fight that might end with nuclear annihilation.\nSo, Russia should have to compete with the EU, Turkey, Japan, the US and even\nChina rather than nibbling on so-called weaker target Ukraine. On the one hand,\nJapan will begin to take a tougher\nposition on the disputed Kuril Islands<\/a>, on the other hand, economically and\npolitically, China will try to make Russia more dependent on itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Power and energy vacuum: A war or conflict\nalways drain power and energy of warring parties. Beside economic and political\nsanctions, Russia losing its power in the battlefield too. Russia has lost approximately\nmore than 10,000 military personnel, 200 tanks, 1,000 armoured vehicles, 40\nSAM, 150 fighter jets and helicopters till now. Coercion, compellence,\nblockade, sanctions and other non-military actions are easier, wiser and\ncheaper than using military force. So, Russia is rapidly losing its power and\nprestige. In other words, while Russia trying to be a polar power, it is\nbecoming a middle power. Obviously, Russia will miss its Cold War days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Waking sleeping beauty: The EU, in a dream of\nprosperity and peace, is waking up to the forgotten reality of international\npolitics. An aggressive military might may rouse former empires of Europe. Indeed,\nthe Russian invasion of Ukraine may not be enough to constitute an EU military might<\/a>. However, European powers are\ntending to increase their military spending to meet NATO standards. Especially\nGermany reserved a huge amount of fund (100 billion $) to procure military\nassets including 5th<\/sup> generation fighter jets and drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Balance of aliens: States have balancing\ninstincts. When a more irrational actor emerges, others converge rapidly in\norder to survive. It does not matter whether they are former enemies or autocrat\nand democrats. During cold winters cats and dogs cuddle and hug each other. For\nexample, Turkish and French navies conduct\njoint exercises<\/a>\namid Greece Prime Minister visits Turkey<\/a>. Russia is achieving the mission\nimpossible: a united Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the end, nobody should expect a new Cold\nWar. At least Russia, with its disastrous campaign will not be a polar power\nanymore. Many analysts thought that the invasion of Ukraine is the first step\nof Russian aggression towards Europe<\/a>. I argue that we do not need Munich analogies<\/a>. The invasion of Ukraine does not\nmean Russia\u2019s return to the great power\npolitics<\/a>; it will\nbe the end of the Russian myth. Strictly speaking, compared to the other Realist\nexplanations, especially Mearsheimer\u2019s<\/a>, the Sicilian Trap is what an\nalternative Realist story looks like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Brice, Lee L. 2013. \u201cThe Athenian Expedition to\nSicily.\u201d Pp. 622\u201341 in The Oxford Handbook of Warfare in the Classical World<\/em>,\nedited by B. Campbell and L. A. Tritle. Oxford: Oxford University Press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1981). The War Trap. New\nHaven: Yale University Press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thucydides (2009). Thucydides: The Peloponnesian War.\nHammond, M., & Rhodes, P. J. (Eds.). (Oxford World’s Classics). Oxford:\nOxford University Press.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[i]<\/a> The Sicilian Trap is an extensive\nself-funded project that has more than 15 cases including Russian invasion of\nUkraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>
\n

Celil Yi\u011fit<\/strong> is a \u201cPolitical Science and International Relations\u201d PhD candidate at Yildiz Technical University. He has MA degree from Yeditepe University and BA from Marmara University. As a self-proclaimed student of Realism, his main areas of interest are IR Theory, Great Power Politics and Stability of International Politics. He is currently trying to develop a Realist theory of International Politics. <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

To cite this work :<\/strong> Celil Yi\u011fit, \u201c The Sicilian Trap: Why Is Russia Doomed to Fail in Ukraine\u201d, Panorama<\/em>, Online , 25 April 2022, https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/blog\/2022\/04\/25\/sicilian-trap-why-russia-is-doomed-to-fail\/ <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Copyright@UIKPanorama. All on-line and print rights reserved. Opinions expressed in works published by the Panorama<\/em> belongs to the authors alone unless otherwise stated, and do not imply endorsement by the IRCT, Global Academy, or the Editors\/Editorial Board of Panorama. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What if a great power tries to eliminate relatively weak actor rather than compete with peer adversary while in a great power rivalry?  In 415 BCE, the largest fleet in Athenian history begun its expedition of Sicily. The original plan at the Sicilian expedition was to help Athenian allies (Thucydides, 2009, 310-311). But it turned […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":9097,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[512,486],"tags":[656,621,643,644],"class_list":["post-11552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crisis-in-ukraine","category-opinion","tag-english","tag-russia","tag-theory-and-method","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11552","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11552"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11552\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9097"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}