{"id":11567,"date":"2022-02-27T10:31:04","date_gmt":"2022-02-27T10:31:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/2022\/02\/putin-joking\/"},"modified":"2024-11-21T00:13:54","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T21:13:54","slug":"putin-is-not-joking-he-is-not-bluffing-are-we-mehmet-ogutcu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/2022\/02\/putin-is-not-joking-he-is-not-bluffing-are-we-mehmet-ogutcu\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin is not Joking; He is not Bluffing, are we? – Mehmet \u00d6\u011f\u00fct\u00e7\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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It is part\nof a familiar strategy that Russia organizes separatist forces in two regions\n(Luhansk and Donetsk) on the Russian-Ukrainian border, instructs them to\ndeclare independence, recognizes them, signs a friendship and military\nassistance agreement, and finally sends Russian soldiers as a \u201cpeacekeeping\nforce\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now this\ncountry has been invaded from all directions, air defense and attack systems\nare being destroyed to prevent Ukraine from responding militarily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He did the\nsame thing when tearing South Ossetia and Abkhazia apart from Georgia in 2008.\nExcept for weak Western condemnation\/sanctions, no one did anything about that\nintervention. It didn\u2019t surprise us either, six years later, in 2014, when\nRussia broke off Crimea from Ukraine. Again, except for some weak noise, no\ncounter-intervention came from the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We all\naccepted the new status quo imposed by Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is also\nknown that there are new intrigues on Moldova\u2019s Trans-Dniester, the Baltic\nRepublics, the North Sea Route, the Azerbaijan-Armenia corridors,\nBosnia-Herzegovina, and Kosovo. These continue, and we do not know which\ndirection they will unfold. Putin\u2019s talk that Kazakhstan, with which it shares\na 5.600 km border, is a part of Russia historically and that the Kazakh nation\nhas never existed in that geography is a reflection of this way of thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The point\nis, Putin, who could not digest the collapse of the Soviet Union, openly\ndescribed it as a \u201cgreat geopolitical disaster\u201d and accused Gorbachev and\nYeltsin of \u201ctreason\u201d for closing eyes to the process led by the West. It wants\nto create a security circle around Russia, the largest geographical area in the\nworld (18 million Km\u00b2), which is 11 percent of the world\u2019s land, and to\neliminate its \u201clegitimate security concerns\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He showed\nthis with the tough decisions and actions he took by brute force, disregarding\nconcepts such as \u201cterritorial integrity\u201d and \u201csovereignty\u201d, leaving no doubt\nthat he will continue to show it. The Russian leader he took as a role model in\nhistory is Peter I, who we call \u201cthe Mad\u201d and Russians \u201cthe Great\u201d. Guess the\nrest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The\ncornerstones of the new world order have not yet settled. China and Russia do\nnot accept the limited regional roles drawn for them. They shout to all of us\nthat if a rightful place directly proportional to their power is not opened,\nthey will take the position they think they deserve without leaving anyone to\ntheir pleasure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Suppose the\n\u201clogical marriage\u201d between them goes like this. In that case, if Russia and\nChina continue to be viewed in the \u201cenemy\u201d category by the West if the\ncontainment strategy does not give way to cooperation, I guess it may turn into\na \u201cCatholic marriage\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The new Cold War has started as of February 22, 2022.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
We saw that\nthe response of the \u201cWest\u201d (formerly seen as the USA, NATO, EU, OECD, and\nJapan) to the fait accompli and realpolitik moves of these two powers is relatively\nweak and far from being a deterrent. Maybe they\u2019re not strong enough. They\nrumble, but the result does not change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Restriction\non five Russian banks, freezing the assets of three or five oligarchs,\nsuspension of the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which may be\nopened in a few months, deployment of several thousand military personnel to\nthe Baltic states, which are already NATO members and will benefit from the\nprovisions of Article 5\u2019s \u201cone for all, all for one\u201d – these are measures far\nfrom deterring Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since\ncoming to power, Putin has been experiencing sanctions and repulsing them\nskillfully. As of December 2021, he had $630 billion in foreign exchange\nreserves in his vault. Export income from weapons, oil, natural gas, coal,\nmine, metal, and nuclear gives comfort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What\u2019s\nmore, China has said it\u2019s ready to help if Russia gets too stuck at the latest\nVladimir Putin-Xi Jinping Beijing summit. NATO, OSCE, UN sanctions, and\ncondemnations are not as valuable as the paper on them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s why\nuseless sanctions, calling for moderation and calmness, inviting the parties to\nthe diplomatic table to comply with international law, and other classical\ndiplomatic jargons do not make much sense. As Putin has passed the KGB bench\nsince the age of 16, he takes and implements decisions based on sound\nintelligence in a Cold War mindset. He knows very well the weakness and\nstrengths of the West and how far he can go. He is a master chess player.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Turkey is\nat the center of the fire in this crisis, was in the previous ones, and will be\nin those that will erupt in the future. The entrance to the Black Sea is under\nTurkish control thanks to the Montreux Convention. There is an asymmetrical\nrelationship with Moscow; the \u201cwin-win\u201d proposition doesn\u2019t work. The Turkish\ntrade deficit with Russia is heavy and favors Moscow. Interdependence is high on\nfossil fuel, food, weapons purchase, and nuclear. One out of every four foreign\ntourists comes from Russia (and Ukraine).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putin\u2019s leadership and the lack of leaders in the West play a role in Russia\u2019s success beyond its real economic, military, and diplomatic power. <\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
President\nErdogan has repeatedly forced the gates of Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Sochi,\nbut Putin only came a few times when his interests required. He did not stop by\nAnkara during most of his official visits but met in Istanbul. Turks and Putin\nare not on the same line and frequency in Syria, Iraq, the Balkans, the\nCaucasus, and Central Asia. Despite this, it is admirable that the two leaders maintained\ngood working relations and kept the channels of dialogue open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia will\ncontinue its side-by-side approach, taking strength from the West\u2019s \u201cappeasement\u201d\npolicy, both in Ukraine, in the former Soviet republics and satellite countries\nthat it describes as its \u201cbackyard\u201d or \u201cnear abroad\u201d as well as in the Middle\nEast, Africa, and the Far East. Here, Putin\u2019s leadership and the lack of\nleaders in the West play a role in Russia\u2019s success beyond its real economic,\nmilitary, and diplomatic power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Turkey\nurgently needs to increase the quality and agility of its foreign policy,\nsecurity and intelligence management and demonstrate the reliability and weight\nrequired for being a trusted regional power. Putin can easily follow similar\nstrategies for separatist movements within and around Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Therefore,\nwithout being excessively dependent on Russia, re-establishing relations with\nRussia on a realistic \u201cwin-win\u201d basis, restoring the distorted balance with the\nWest, and re-integrating the region’s countries into the equation based on the\nbalance of power. Turkey must defend and advance its well-defined security and\neconomic interests consistently and resolutely with Central Asia, the Caucasus,\nthe Middle East, Southeast Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Otherwise, Putin\u2019s\nRussia has the potential to hit us in the heart in unexpected ways and times as\nhe will in other countries in Europe and Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Mehmet \u00d6\u011f\u00fct\u00e7\u00fc, Diplomat (E.)<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
Mehmet \u00d6\u011f\u00fct\u00e7\u00fc<\/strong>, Chairman, Global Resources Partnership (and former Turkish diplomat).An internationally recognized authority on energy diplomacy, geopolitics, finance and investment, Mehmet currently chairs Global Resources Partnership, a UK strategic advisory group, serves as Chair of The Bosphorus Energy Club and The London Energy Club, and Special Envoy of The International Energy Charter. Previously, he served as Prime Minister\u2019s advisor and career diplomat in Beijing, Brussels, Paris and London. Mehmet was a principal administrator for The International Energy Agency and moved to the OECD to lead international investment. He was a director for the BG Group (formerly British Gas), now part of Shell. Mehmet also sat on a number of national and international company boards as independent non-executive director including at Genel Energy plc, Invensys plc, Saudi Crown Holding, and Turkish conglomerates such as Sisecam Group, Yasar Holding and Toya Group. He is also a strategist in international boardrooms. He is fluent in Turkish, English, French, Mandarin (conversational). <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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