\u201cPeople who live in glass houses should not throw stones.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three months later, this strong warning looks less like a threat and more like a prediction. A decade ago, Iran was the region\u2019s shadow puppeteer, proudly proclaiming its control over four Arab capitals<\/a>. However, its projection of power through proxies backfired. Ironically, this helped facilitate the surprise offensive of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, backed by Tehran\u2019s regional rival, T\u00fcrkiye. Moreover, its archenemy, Israel, has steadily weakened Iran and Hezbollah\u2019s military capabilities in both Lebanon and Syria, especially following Iran-backed Hamas\u2019 deadly cross-border attack on October 7, 2023,<\/a> which indirectly enabled HTS\u2019 takeover of Syria, the indispensable \u201cjewel in the crown\u201d of Iran\u2019s regional network. T\u00fcrkiye and Iran have been regional rivals for decades, with Syria as a key battleground. Assad\u2019s downfall in December 2024 was a serious strategic blow to Iran and resulted in a power vacuum that Ankara is increasingly filling. Today, T\u00fcrkiye is capitalizing on Iran\u2019s declining regional influence and is building what Iran could not: regional partnerships and not just proxies. While the competition for dominance between the two neighboring adversaries is intensifying in Syria and Iraq, it is also extending\u202fbeyond the Middle East.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Historical background<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Although the Ottoman and Safavid empires fought several wars<\/a>, modern-day T\u00fcrkiye and Iran -widely viewed as the successors of those imperial legacies- often emphasize the enduring significance of the 1639 Treaty of Kasr-\u0131 Shirin (Zuhab) as the foundation of their centuries-old friendship with one of the Middle East\u2019s most stable frontiers. Despite their deep-rooted geopolitical rivalry, both countries frequently invoke this historical reference to frame their bilateral relations as peaceful and stable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Sharing a long border, these two non-Arab regional powers have developed a relationship best described as a \u201ccooperative rivalry<\/a>.\u201d The Arab Spring has intensified their political and ideological competition for influence, with both countries seeking to capitalize on the emerging new regional order. Despite often competing for influence and supporting opposing sides in conflicts, they continued to pursue ways to strengthen their economic ties and invest in their partnerships through mediation efforts, such as the Astana Process, which also involved Russia. Both countries managed complex challenges without major friction despite their competing interests. However, this delicate balance suffered a significant crack in early 2025 with a diplomatic crisis that became a clear manifestation of deeper strategic rivalry between T\u00fcrkiye and Iran, based on shifts in regional influence, ideological divergences, and competing geopolitical ambitions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Kurdish issue<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n This latest dispute follows Iranian criticism of T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s Syria policy following the call by jailed Kurdistan Workers\u2019 Party (PKK) leader Abdullah \u00d6calan<\/a>, who urged his group to disarm. In response, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned Iran against meddling in others\u2019 internal affairs, suggesting such actions could backfire, in a rare and veiled threat. Tensions were already high due to reports signaling Iran\u2019s military support to the PKK<\/a>, a group designated as a terrorist organization by T\u00fcrkiye<\/a>, Iran<\/a>, and the United States<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u00fcrkiye now sees a golden opportunity to resolve this decades-old conflict, given its relatively good relations with Baghdad and Damascus, as well as its strong regional position. Ankara believes the PKK has no other alternative but to abandon the fight. However, it remains highly sensitive to Iran\u2019s<\/a> potential support for the PKK and its offshoots in Iran, Syria, or Iraq. Tehran, on the other hand, is concerned about the growing coordination between T\u00fcrkiye and the United States to reduce Iran\u2019s influence in Syria and Iraq. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Post-Assad Syria: A game changer<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n With the fall of the Assad regime, T\u00fcrkiye and Israel have emerged as key power brokers in Syria<\/a>, effectively taking up the vacuum created by the waning influence of Russia and Iran. The United States initially adopted a wait-and-see approach, but this stance shifted in May 2025 with a landmark meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Syria\u2019s interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n This meeting was central as it marked the tentative recognition of the new political order in Syria. Trump later announced the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria, crediting T\u00fcrkiye and Saudi Arabia. The EU followed suit after a meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels on May 20. This shift marks a victory for Al-Sharaa and also a win for T\u00fcrkiye. This development underscores Iran\u2019s marginalization after years of costly interventions to keep Assad in power. More broadly, it illustrates Ankara as a middle power<\/a> that continues to punch above its weight in regional and international affairs. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s influence extends from Iraq and the South Caucasus to Central Asia and Africa, literally replacing Iran\u2019s eroding power. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Connectivity and trade corridors<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n In the South Caucasus<\/a>, Iran and T\u00fcrkiye are increasingly at odds, competing for regional supremacy in a territory that has emerged as a geopolitical fault line following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s strong\u202frelations with Azerbaijan, which is often described as \u201cone nation, two states,\u201d<\/a>\u202fand its influence in determining the results of the Second Karabakh War have notably shifted the balance of\u202fpower,\u202fbenefiting T\u00fcrkiye, while marginalizing Iran in the process. Tehran perceives the expanding partnership among T\u00fcrkiye, Azerbaijan, and Israel, particularly in the realms of defense, energy, and connectivity projects, as a threat to its strategic depth and regional influence, particularly as it faces U.S. sanctions that further alienate Iran from international markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u00fcrkiye positions itself as a unifying force among Turkic nations, enhancing its involvement in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. In contrast, lacking a clear pathway to challenge T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s increasing hegemony in the region, Iran has resorted to defensive measures such as strengthening its relationship with Armenia and conducting military drills near the Azerbaijani border. Additionally, Tehran perceives Ankara\u2019s determination for the Zangezur Corridor<\/a> as an existential threat, severing its connection to Armenia and reducing its access to northern routes. Iran sees this initiative as \u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019s highway to Turan<\/a>\u201d and a Pan-Turkism project supported by NATO<\/a>. Meanwhile, the Middle Corridor<\/a> (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route) has become strategically vital as a safer and preferred<\/a> route, particularly since Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the increased Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. Connecting Europe and China via Central Asia and the South Caucasus, the Middle Corridor bypasses Russia and Iran while reaffirming T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s role as a pivotal hub for global trade. Iran is largely excluded from this initiative due to its poor infrastructure, lack of investments, and international sanctions.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Moreover, Iran\u2019s hope to position itself as a vital transit route within the Middle Corridor via Iraq, Syria, and the Mediterranean Sea, has been dashed by the fall of Assad. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s growing role in Northern Syria diminishes the prospects of Iran\u2019s relevance in east-west trade routes. Tehran is attempting new ways to connect itself to connectivity projects via the\u202fTurkmenistan-Uzbekistan route<\/a> or through\u202fAfghanistan<\/a>, aiming\u202fto secure a stronger foothold within regional trade routes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Strategic implications of the T\u00fcrkiye-Iran rivalry<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Wherever Iran looks, it now sees T\u00fcrkiye; expanding its diplomatic, economic, and military presence across Eurasia, the Middle East, and Africa with its involvement in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, the Ethiopia-Somalia reconciliation<\/a>, its growing influence in Libya<\/a>, and Taliban-controlled Afghanistan<\/a>, its expanding economic, military, and security presence in the Gulf<\/a> and Africa<\/a>\u2019s Sahel. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The fall of the Assad regime in Syria dismantled Iran\u2019s politico-military infrastructure, setting back its regional ambitions. In response, the Red Sea has emerged as the most active front in Iran\u2019s sphere of influence, where it employs asymmetric maritime tactics and proxy warfare through the Houthis to expand its presence and deter Western influence. This strategy poses a significant challenge to global maritime security and shifts regional power dynamics in favor of Iran and its allies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The intensifying rivalry between T\u00fcrkiye and Iran has been reshaping regional dynamics. Weakened by international sanctions, diplomatic isolation, pressure on its nuclear program, domestic disturbances, economic problems, and setbacks in Syria and its proxy network, Iran has been increasingly sidelined in diplomatic processes and key trade routes. In contrast, T\u00fcrkiye is expanding its influence through conflict mediation, humanitarian aid, infrastructure projects, and security cooperation, becoming a central player across Eurasia, the Middle East, and Africa. <\/p>\n\n\n\n For the European Union and the United States, this shift presents risks and opportunities. Ankara\u2019s proactive multilateral diplomatic efforts possess the potential to mitigate Iran\u2019s regional influence and address power vacuums. However, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s assertive and autonomous foreign policy approach demands careful engagement. Meanwhile, Iran\u2019s isolation and fading influence may push it further toward Russia and China, thereby strengthening a competing geopolitical bloc. Comprehending the nature and consequences of this rivalry is crucial for any enduring strategy in the region. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u201cPeople who live in glass houses should not throw stones.\u201d Three months later, this strong warning looks less like a threat and more like a prediction. A decade ago, Iran was the region\u2019s shadow puppeteer, proudly proclaiming its control over four Arab capitals. However, its projection of power through proxies backfired. Ironically, this helped facilitate […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":181,"featured_media":13792,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[486,506,498,508],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","category-mena","category-regions","category-turkey"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13791","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/181"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13791"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13791\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13792"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13791"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13791"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalpanorama.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13791"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}