Dynamics of the War in the Middle East – Burak Korkmaz

“Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.” – George Orwell, 1984

All around the world, “Departments of Truth” are working overtime and burning midnight oil to convince the public of their narratives. Since the 28th of February, all airwaves have been busy with the Middle East and the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. Every other day, there is news about Netanyahu’s death, Tel Aviv’s burning down to ashes, and American bases being wiped out. These are far from reality; while the Iranian navy and air force have been decimated, military, intelligence, political, and religious leadership liquidated, Israeli-American coalition forces dominate the Iranian airspace. This piece aims to shed light on the dynamics of the ongoing conflict by analyzing open-source data.

The US, regardless of who is at the steering wheel, prioritizes three things. First, the US’s own security, second, the interests of American businesses, and third, the security of the state of Israel. For the known world, the third and the first are often considered the same, as acknowledged by Joe Biden. And the second is the primary driver behind the US-led liberal world order. So for the US, this is not a war on Iran, and it never was. This is just a battle of a much wider campaign for global hegemony, which began with the establishment of American regional hegemony over the Western Hemisphere in 1889.

Therefore, it is irrelevant to claim whether the US is drifting or lacks a clear understanding of what it desires from the world. This is clearly evident on page 10 of the ODNI Annual Threat Assessment 2025, which states, “China presents the most comprehensive and robust military threat to U.S. national security.” So, everything the US does should be evaluated from this perspective. For the US, China is the challenger and should be dealt with accordingly.

For generations, the Middle East and its vast energy resources have been the epicenter of American power. Make no mistake, the US, or perhaps it should be said the Western Hemisphere, is energy independent. But the point is to exercise control over the challenger; in this case, it is China’s development pace. Because development could be transferred to military buildup for the upcoming confrontation. As it is declared in the National Security Strategy 2025, on pages 28-29, “America will always have core interests in ensuring that Gulf energy supplies do not fall into the hands of an outright enemy, that the Strait of Hormuz remain open, that the Red Sea remain navigable, that the region not be an incubator or exporter of terror against American interests or the American homeland, and that Israel remain secure. We can and must address this threat ideologically and militarily without decades of fruitless ‘nation-building’ wars. We also have a clear interest in expanding the Abraham Accords to more nations in the region and to other countries in the Muslim World.”

With President Trump in the office, they, I mean the Israelis, wiped out nearly all of their enemies around. But there is another cold truth which they know in their guts. The American political system, like anything in America, depends on a competition between two distinct power structures. These two power structures have completely different interests and means of doing business. So Israelis know, either the US wins a victory now before the midterms or things might go south easily for them. So likewise, the US and Israelis don’t care who holds the office in Tehran. On the contrary, a de-nuked Ayetollah regime holding its people in the crosshairs would be beneficial for the Israeli government, which is almost running out of foreign threats. “Death to Israel” chant works for Israel, that’s for sure.

So the focal point for the Israelis is the word, de-nuked. The previous year’s events proved three points. First, Iranians got walk the walk, second, they have the means, and last but not least, Israel is not untouchable. The Twelve-Day War was not the first time Israel had been hit. Iraq hit Israel in the First Gulf War in 1991; Hezbollah and other organizations had hit Israel for years. But the Iranian missile campaign showed them their interception success rate is around 92%. Which means in every ten ballistic missiles, the possibility of having one direct hit is nearly imminent.

So one can understand the simple maths when thinking in their shoes. An Iran on the nuclear threshold with 440 kilograms of nearly weapons-grade uranium (scientists claim it is enough for 10 warheads) means a firing squad for Israel. For a society living in a belief system which claims “in every generation they rise up to destroy us”, with clear historical evidence of bad memories of any sort, and located on a narrow piece of land which might be destroyed and become uninhabitable with three nuclear warheads, the stakes are so high even if it also means an end for Iran or worst.

Being the devil’s advocate, one should ask if it is all about China, what is the future of Gwadar? A Pakistani port in the Indian Ocean, which was rented to the Chinese for 40 years and became a deep-water port for the renowned Chinese grand strategy, One Belt One Road. And this is not just another Chinese purchase. It is a clear emergency exit for China in case of a flare-up in the Pacific with the Americans, which might end up with a naval blockade. So the question is whether the war will spill over to the greater northern tier? While the devil is still tickling, one remembers the ongoing relations between India, Israel, and the US.

As a result, if it is not going to enlarge, the latest crisis in the Persian Gulf is far from over. As Iran continues its dance with China, neither the US nor Israel can afford a nuclear Iran, which might spark a nuclear spring in and around the Middle East or have a free decision-making process. On the contrary, for the US to be secure, China should be encircled with a kind of global “Gush Emunim”. I bet the Abraham Accords serve this purpose. Last but not least, if this is the opening scene of the final showdown, any crisis on the naval choke points is working for the US and strangles the Chinese. Likewise, many American allies, such as Korea, Japan, and the Europeans, go down with them. While the Western Hemisphere would be safe and secure. Maybe this is what isolation looks like. A tripartite world order. Very Orwellian.