Last night, incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) pulled off a surprise victory in Brazil’s runoff election. Superior Electoral Court (TSE) announced Lula won with 51.79% of the vote.
As I have previously explained in another commentary here on Global Panorama, Bolsonaro is believed to be endorsed by the Trump administration vis-à-vis Lula, who is a left-wing politician with a solid stance against Trump administration about his policies on South America, known as Donroe Doctrine. Given the importance this doctrine places on establishing control over the Western Hemisphere, it serves as a continuation of the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 signaled U.S.’ isolation from European affairs and focus on the hemisphere; hence it bears this name. The moment Lula declared his victory, Lula indicated that “Brazil is no one’s backyard”, solidifying his previous stance. As of the early hours of Monday, October 26, there is no statement from the White House with regard to election results in Brazil.
Lula’s victory, without a doubt, is a huge disruption to the doctrine. As President Trump has been trying to align South American countries with U.S. interests, as seen in Panama and Venezuela so far, the biggest country in South America is now under leadership for another four years, a leadership which openly opposes the Donroe Doctrine. The U.S. was hoping for a Bolsonaro win, especially after the results of the first round. The administration seems confident in itself. Just the other day, Secretary of State Rubio called out for Cuban citizens on the island to “seize the opportunity” and side with the CIA, signaling Trump administration turns their eyes to Cuba. However, given that Canada is seeking other partnerships with non-regional countries such as Turkey—as evidenced by the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to the country—in addition to strengthening its ties with the European Union (E.U.)—and following the victory of an anti-U.S. incumbent in Brazil, the Donroe Doctrine appears doomed to failure.
What adds to this fire is the upcoming midterm elections at home. The U.S is getting ready for the midterm elections that will take place on November 3, 2026. In this election, in the Senate, 35/100 seats are up for contest; and in the House, all 435 seats are going to be contested.
Democrats hope to gain a majority in the House. Their hope is being fed by President Trump’s approval rate drop—the lowest of his term, a striking -27. They are devising their ambitious first 100 days plan for such a scenario. Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries explained this plan in a press conference on September 30, 2026. Accordingly, Dems are planning to reinstate Affordable Care Act tax breaks, reverse Medicaid cuts, end the war with Iran and have control over Trump’s very controversial tariff policies.
What is the situation in the hot contest in the said seats? In the House, Texas, California, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania seem to have the seats with the most heated contests. According to National Broadcasting Company’s (NBC) prediction, Democrats will gain control of the House by 52%; YouGov predicts a 53% majority for the Dems, and The New York Times (NYT) assumes 52% blue seats. For the Senate, NBC predicts 5 toss-ups in the race while assuming both parties will have 41 solid seats; NYT also puts the Democratic Party in a favourable position vis-a-vis the GOP with 3 toss-ups and even taking Texas seats. However, despite the polls, it is still not certain for the Dems to take control of both houses—especially the Senate. The future of their ambitious agenda is going to be determined by toss-ups.
President Trump and Republicans hope to keep the majority in the House so that the president’s Donroe Doctrine can keep going in full steam. However, with the candidate openly supported by Trump losing the election in Brazil, Canada seeking new partnerships, and the approach of midterm elections that are highly uncertain for the administration—all at a time when Trump’s approval ratings are at an all-time low—the future of the Donroe Doctrine has become even more uncertain and is heading toward ultimate failure.
