The midterm elections, watched with great interest worldwide and long anticipated, finally saw US voters make their historic democratic decision. On 3 November, voters had the opportunity to correct the historical mistake of electing Trump as President not once, but twice, by making a definitive change. In the USA, the Democrats made gains in the midterm elections, overtaking the Republicans and securing a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The election results amounted to an open challenge to Trump and, at the same time, served as a lesson in democracy.
Democrats’ Landslide Election Victory
In the midterm elections, the Democrats regained majorities in both houses of Congresss. According to the latest data from the AP news agency, the Democrats currently hold 54 of the 100 seats in the Senate, while the Republicans will be represented by only 44 members. The Democrats won at least 254 seats in the House of Representatives, the larger house of the US Congress, while the number of Republicans remained at 162. This has only been achieved twice in the last 50 years. The Democrats managed to win many states that had long been in Republican hands, seizing control of Texas, Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina and South Carolina, which have traditionally been Republican strongholds. The big surprise is the first victory for the Democrats in almost three decades in the deeply conservative state of South Carolina. Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries from New York may now go down as the first black person to make history as Speaker of the House of Representatives. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, a Democratic Muslim, won a seat in the Senate in a high-profile race. He is the first Muslim member of the Senate in American history.
How Did Trump React to the Election Results?
He was quick to deflect responsibility for the defeat, sharing on the Truth Social platform: “I was not on the ballots”. US Vice President J.D. Vance blamed the Iran war, which was started by Trump and Netanyahu, for the Democrats’ landslide victory. Vance blames the Iran war for the crushing Republican defeat. As Trump stated after the election, the ongoing war in Iran, which he initiated, was one of the main reasons for the election earthquake.
In his statement, Vance appears to be distancing himself from Donald Trump following the Republicans’ election defeat. Another interesting twist: following the Republicans’ defeat in the recent congressional elections, attention has turned to those who might be to blame. One of the people they are targeting is Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth.
In another interesting development, the leaders who sided with and cooperated with Trump and followed a foreign policy based on him, such as those where Orban lost the election in Hungary, Vucic’s SNS in Serbia lost its 14-year rule, Bolsonaro could not come to power, Lula’s victory in Brazil has safeguarded democracy against Trump, and even Netanyahu has been weakened. The results of the mid-term elections can also be seen as a reaction to Trump’s authoritarian domestic policies, his anti-secular stance and his close collaboration with wealthy businesspeople.
Causes of the By-Election Earthquake
The election results in the USA were significantly influenced by high inflation, which was one of the most important economic factors. Almost nine out of ten voters cited the cost of living as a decisive or important reason for their vote. They blamed him for the high prices. Consumer prices in September were 3.7 percent higher than in the same month last year, which is well above the US Federal Reserve’s target of two percent. Another hazard is the funding of the financial plan. The debt level has hit 125 percent of the gross domestic product. High financing requirements are pushing up capital market interest rates, while the budget is facing a significant increase in its interest burden. The economy is growing, but many Americans are suffering from the high cost of living. The US labour market is losing momentum, and the national debt is increasing.
Another important factor is the change in behavior among Latinos. An unusually high proportion of this demographic has helped Trump win the presidential election in 2024. Now, the pendulum has returned, likely due to Trump’s tough stance on immigrants and his frustration with his economic policies.
What is Trump waiting for?
The midterm elections are a predictor of the post-Trump era, with the Republican debacle largely due to the president’s unpopularity. He will remain in office for another two years as a ‘lame duck’’. But his authority in the party is likely to diminish. Possible presidential candidates will soon be on the agenda.
In the House of Representatives, the government’s legislative proposals can be blocked or committees of inquiry set up. Nevertheless, it is evident that US President Donald Trump has relied heavily on executive orders up to now. Trump will likely attempt to demonstrate his competence on domestic issues by working with Congress to find common ground for domestic and international policies.
There is also the possibility of another impeachment attempt. This would be the third time that Congress has voted on whether Trump should be removed from office. However, this would require more than 50 percent of the votes in the House of Representatives and two-thirds in the Senate.
Next year, the Democrats’ strong showing is likely to further intensify the battle over the debt ceiling. And this time, the battle could be even fiercer, as the Democrats will make their approval conditional on political concessions from the White House. With the Democrats now in control of the Senate, the president will also need their support in the future if he wants to appoint cabinet members, ambassadors and constitutional justices.
Furthermore, the loss of the Republican majority in Congress has serious consequences for President Donald Trump. The Democrats have the option of initiating an investigation into Donald Trump and his family, which would include the Epstein affairs and the family’s income and investments.
Trump, who has already served two terms as president, is a well-known figure both to the American public and the wider world. He will adapt and adjust to the new conditions as soon as possible and seek opportunities to cooperate with the Democrats, both in and out of Congress, in order to win their support until the end of the legislative period.
We will watch the struggle for power and balance between Congress and the Presidency, as well as the efforts of the President to maintain his position of authority. The president’s unpopularity is a significant factor in the Republican debacle. Trump is also responsible for the selection of problematic congressional candidates. His time as party leader is almost up – in two years’ time he’ll be out. The question is, who will replace him? It may be expected that there will be strong opposition from the press and the public against him.
How does Europe evaluate the election?
Over the past two years, Donald Trump has repeatedly demonstrated that his decisions also affect the daily lives of Europeans. The tariffs, which are particularly significant for European industry, and the rising prices of food and fuel resulting from the war in Ukraine are arguably the most obvious examples of this. The election results would strengthen the ties between both houses of Congress and the democratic governments in Europe, and curb the growing tendency of right-wing parties to work closely with Trump.
Security issues are another point of contention between Brussels and Washington, as is the future of NATO. The US is taking the matter seriously: in light of the growing tensions between Washington and Berlin, the Pentagon has announced that it will withdraw around 5,000 troops from Germany within the next six to twelve months. The official reason given is a review of the troop presence in Europe. In Brussels, there is great hope that a change in the majority will also lead to a change of course in transatlantic relations, with many believing that this will result in a new approach to the relationship between Europe and the United States. However, alongside this optimism, prudence reigns supreme.
